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OCBC's daily outlook flags a hawkish Fed after a unanimous 25bp hike, with the 10-year UST near 5.00% and markets pricing two more hikes by year-end. Focus shifts to the 24 September Trump-Xi talks, where a framework to cut tariffs on about $30bn of goods and…
ABN AMRO has downgraded its EUR/USD forecasts to 1.15 after the Fed hiked its policy rate by 25bp and signalled a more hawkish path than expected. The bank now sees the pair trading broadly sideways until Q2 2027, as higher-for-longer energy prices and…
State Street expects range-bound G10 FX into September, with the US dollar likely to retrace higher over one to two months despite ranking last in its model. Growth outside the US beat depressed expectations, but energy risks persist. The Japanese yen is…
The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate 25bp to 1.25% on 18 September, the shortest interval this cycle, pressured by coordinated US-Japan yen intervention, Washington's call for higher rates and a hawkish Board tilt. With wages and producer…
Ahead of the September 2026 FOMC, Intesa Sanpaolo calls the decision a close call, with markets assigning roughly 90% probability to a hike to 3.75-4% and fully pricing two hikes by year-end. The report had previously expected a December move but now sees a…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707…
The ECB delivered a second 25bp rate hike and Intesa Sanpaolo expects a pause until at least December, given its below-ECB inflation projections and limited second-round effects, though risks are one-sided to the upside. Attention now shifts to next week's…
The G7 foreign exchange market is being driven by three converging forces: a yen surge to a seven-month high on expected BOJ tightening, Brent crude above $100 per barrel following US-Iran military escalation, and a synchronized global tightening cycle with…
The 14-18 September 2026 calendar is dominated by three G10 central bank decisions: the FOMC is expected to leave the target fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, the Bank of England is forecast to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, and the Bank of Japan is expected…
MUFG's FX Daily Snapshot argues the September 11 US CPI report is pivotal for Fed hike expectations and the dollar. Stronger PPI has lifted implied hikes to 18bp ahead of the FOMC, up from 13bp. An in-line or stronger 0.2% m/m CPI reading would sustain hike…
Scotiabank's September 2026 FX Outlook adopts a broadly bearish USD stance, arguing the DXY is in the early stages of a bearish reversal as rate differentials erode and G10 central banks turn hawkish. The Fed is forecast to hold at 3.75% through 2027, while…
Italian industrial production rebounded 0.7% month-on-month in July 2026, beating expectations after two consecutive declines, but the working-day-adjusted year-on-year rate was flat at 0.0%. The recovery was broad-based across sectors except energy (-0.9%…
The ECB raised its three official rates by 25 basis points, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%, in line with market expectations. Intesa Sanpaolo argues this was the last…
Follow our podcasts by searching ‘ OCBC Research Insights ’ on Telegram! 1 By Global Markets | 9 September 2026 Daily Credit Snapshot Market Commentary • On geopolitics, Iran's attacks on Saudi energy facilities and the subsequent destruction of five Iranian…
September midterm-year seasonality has lifted volatility, with mixed sentiment and Hindenburg Omen chatter, while sovereign bond routs add unease. Central banks are the key compass: the ECB delivers a 25bp hike, and strong August US jobs fuel expectations of…
2 Minutes on the Markets | Schwab Market Insights This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities and…
Macro Rapid Response Macro Based on information available up to 07 September 2026 Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication. Eurozone GDP: an Ireland-induced revision In Q2, GDP growth in the euro area was revised up by…
German industrial production fell sharply in July due to temporary factors, including automotive plant retooling and low Rhine water levels, with a possible further contraction in Q3 before a rebound. The AfD's strong performance in Saxony-Anhalt elections…
ING expects a single Fed rate hike in September 2026, delaying but not cancelling a cyclical dollar decline projected for spring 2027. EUR/USD is forecast to end 2026 around 1.16, with USD/JPY likely trading in a 155-160 range near term. High yielders and…
ING's September 2026 G10 FX outlook sees the dollar's downtrend delayed by an expected 25bp Fed hike on 16 September, prompting a cut in the year-end EUR/USD forecast. EUR/USD is expected to stay subdued until spring when US inflation approaches 2%. USD/JPY…