Calendar of macroeconomic data and events11 September 2026

中文标题

宏观经济数据与事件日历 · 2026年9月11日

Intesa Sanpaolo09/11/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

The 14-18 September 2026 calendar is dominated by three G10 central bank decisions: the FOMC is expected to leave the target fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, the Bank of England is forecast to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, and the Bank of Japan is expected to raise its target policy rate by 25bp to 1.25%. Data releases include UK CPI for August (previous 2.9% y/y), euro-area final August HICP (preliminary 3.3% y/y), US August retail sales (previous -0.6% m/m) and the September Philadelphia Fed index (previous 47.4). Euro-area industrial production for July is seen rebounding to -0.7% m/m after 0.0%, German ZEW economic sentiment is expected to ease to 37.0 from 34.2, and US Empire Manufacturing consensus stands at 20.6 after 20.6 previously. In Asia, Chinese August activity data are due, with retail sales seen at 0.8% y/y versus 0.6% and industrial production at 4.8% y/y versus 4.5%. The week also features sovereign rating reviews for Germany, Greece, Ireland, France and Finland, and an informal Eurogroup/ECOFIN meeting.

Institution: Intesa Sanpaolo
Published: 09/11/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

The FOMC is expected to keep the target fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with Chair Warsh holding a press conference afterward.
The Bank of England is forecast to leave Bank Rate at 3.75%, followed by Governor Bailey's press conference.
The Bank of Japan is expected to hike its target policy rate by 25bp to 1.25%, with Governor Ueda speaking afterward.
UK August CPI (previous 2.9% y/y) and euro-area final August HICP (preliminary 3.3% y/y) anchor the week's inflation data.
US August retail sales (previous -0.6% m/m) and the September Philadelphia Fed index (previous 47.4) are the key US activity releases.
Chinese August retail sales and industrial production are seen improving modestly to 0.8% y/y and 4.8% y/y respectively.
Sovereign rating reviews are scheduled for Germany, Greece, Ireland, France and Finland, alongside an informal Eurogroup/ECOFIN meeting.

Key numbers

FOMC target fed funds rate (forecast, unchanged): 3.50%-3.75%
Bank of England Bank Rate (forecast, unchanged): 3.75%
BoJ target policy rate (forecast, +25bp): 1.25%
UK CPI y/y, August (previous): 2.9%
Euro-area HICP y/y, August final (preliminary): 3.3%
US retail sales m/m, August (previous): -0.6%
Philadelphia Fed index, September (previous): 47.4
China retail sales y/y, August (consensus vs previous): 0.8% vs 0.6%

Main risks

The FOMC decision and Chair Warsh's press conference could shift the rate path more than the unchanged-hold baseline implies.
A BoJ hike to 1.25% risks renewed yen volatility and carry-trade unwind, with global spillovers.
UK CPI and BoE guidance may reprice GBP and gilt expectations if inflation surprises.
US retail sales and housing data could alter soft-landing assumptions for the Federal Reserve.
Chinese activity data may disappoint relative to modest consensus improvement, weighing on risk sentiment.
Sovereign rating actions on Germany, Greece, Ireland, France and Finland could affect euro-area spreads.

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