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MUFG reports the dollar index consolidating just above 102 ahead of Wednesday's US September CPI, with the 2-year Treasury yield down about 20bp from its 29th September peak after softer PCE and NFP data. The rate market prices roughly 5bp of Fed hikes this…
The US dollar index stayed firm near 102.20 despite softer University of Michigan sentiment (46.3) and higher one-year inflation expectations (4.7%). Strong 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions capped long-end yields. India and Taiwan saw foreign equity…
MUFG's Japan economic calendar previews the week of October 12, 2026, with September CGPI expected at +7.5% YoY versus consensus +7.6%, after +7.6% in August. M3 money stock is forecast at +1.2% YoY, with broadly-defined liquidity at +4.4%. August machinery…
The UAE economy contracted 2.1% y/y in Q2 2026, the first decline since the pandemic, despite 0.4% H1 growth. Oil, manufacturing, logistics, hospitality and trade drove the fall, while financial services grew double digits. PMI has recovered above 55 but…
Oil retreated as Trump signalled a Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" and proposed direct US diesel imports from Russia, with Brent down 1.1% to USD 103.60/b and WTI at USD 90/b. Middle East risk stayed elevated after a Strait of Hormuz tanker attack and…
Scotiabank's Global Week Ahead frames the coming week around US inflation data, the start of Q3 earnings season and central bank communications at the IMF/IIF Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The bank argues the Bank of Canada should fade jobs data and concentrate…
MUFG's October 2026 outlook sees an AI-driven investment boom of at least $400bn above pre-AI trend, heavily concentrated in computer equipment with annual growth near 80%, yet broad demand growth remains only 2.5–3.5%, like the shallow post-GFC expansion.…
Banxico's September minutes showed a unanimous hold at 6.50%, with a dovish tilt: three members saw room for a cut on November 5, while two urged caution. Headline inflation rose to 3.42% y/y, core eased to 3.79%, but services inflation stayed sticky at…
TD Economics' October 9, 2026 weekly review flags the September CPI report (Oct 14) as the key event, with consensus at 3.6% y/y headline and 2.5% y/y core. Oil traded in a $88-93/bbl WTI range as markets weighed Hormuz flows, Middle East tensions and…
The USD sits near year-to-date highs with momentum easing. MUFG expects the Fed to hold rates this month absent a big September CPI upside surprise, noting recent USD strength increasingly reflects overseas weakness, notably euro area energy-shock and French…
ABN AMRO argues the global bond sell-off reflects higher expected real neutral rates rather than imminent crisis. Model estimates suggest roughly 90% of German and US yield moves stem from monetary policy expectations, with modest term premia. A 100bp rate…
Italy has passed a new electoral law aimed at curbing fragmentation and encouraging pre-election coalitions, which briefly tightened the 10Y BTP-Bund spread but left the move limited given implementation risk. Natixis forecasts the spread at 90bp by end-2026…
MUFG expects Asia FX to trade range-bound in the week ahead, driven by US September CPI, Treasury yields and China activity, inflation and credit data. A softer US inflation print would support high-yielding Asian currencies and help stem equity outflows,…
Scotiabank expects no change in Canadian September employment (0k) and unemployment at 6.5%, versus consensus of +10k. US University of Michigan October sentiment is forecast at 47.0, down from 48.1, with consumers bleak on the outlook yet still spending as…
Natixis's Americas note flags Brazilian election victory for Bolsonaro alongside a surprise Peru hold: BCRP kept its policy rate at 4.25% when a 25bp hike was expected, citing low supercore inflation of 1.8% y/y despite headline at 4.5%. The note also says…
Natixis expects September core CPI at 0.19% m/m and headline CPI at 0.6% m/m, both in line with consensus, reinforcing its view that underlying inflation keeps drifting lower. It sees little evidence of reacceleration: tariff and energy shocks are acyclical…
Reports that OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate is near USD 50 billion, below earlier estimates of about USD 70 billion, reignited doubts about AI capital spending and drove a semiconductor-led selloff: SOX -3.4%, NDX -1.39%. US jobless claims fell to…
MUFG notes the euro is stabilising after sliding from 1.1600 to 1.1200 on higher global yields, French fiscal concerns before April/May presidential elections and a terms-of-trade hit from refined energy prices. German GDP forecasts were revised up to 1.3%…
ING expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore to tighten policy modestly, lifting the SGD NEER band slope to about 1.5% annual appreciation, alongside robust third-quarter GDP. India's CPI is seen accelerating sharply to 5.4% on food and fuel. China's CPI…
US equities closed mixed: S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -1.3%, Dow +0.1%, with the semiconductor index down 3.4% on AI-revenue concerns. Brent rose 4.1% above USD104/bbl and WTI 3.6% to USD91.49 on Middle East tensions, though Trump ruled out strikes on Iran before…