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Natixis argues that a hotter-than-expected August CPI report has cemented a 25bp Fed hike at the September meeting, with headline CPI at 0.4% m/m (3.4% y/y) and core at 0.29% m/m (2.4% y/y), though the firm remains optimistic that inflation will continue to…
August US CPI report showed headline inflation rising 0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y, while core CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.29% m/m and 2.4% y/y. This data is sufficient to nudge the Fed into a rate hike at the upcoming meeting, though it does not signal a…
Natixis estimates euro area R-star at 2.2%, marginally below the ECB deposit rate of 2.5%, implying a only modestly restrictive policy stance. The report argues that real interest rates and R-star share common global drivers - productivity, demographics, the…
Natixis expects the Bank of England to keep Bank Rate unchanged at its 17 September 2026 meeting with a 6-to-3 voting split, as headline CPI rose to 2.9% on energy effects while core inflation held at 2.6% and private-sector regular pay growth cooled to 2.8%.…
US producer inflation accelerated to 5.4% YoY in August and energy prices jumped, with Brent up over 6% near USD108 on Strait of Hormuz tensions. Markets price a roughly 70% probability of a 25bp Fed hike at the 15-16 September meeting. The ECB raised its…
MUFG expects the September FOMC and BOJ meetings to reinforce a more differentiated Asia FX environment amid Brent above $100/bbl. With the Fed on hold and elevated US yields, a 25bps BOJ hike would tighten global liquidity and risk unwinding yen-funded carry…
Natixis analyzes Mexico's proposed 2027 budget, which reduces the public sector financing requirement to 3.9% of GDP from 4.1% in 2026, with gross debt rising modestly to 55% of GDP. Revenues are set to increase to 23.0% of GDP on stricter tax deduction…
Escalating Middle East tensions dominated markets: the US military destroyed five Iranian tankers and Iran retaliated against a US-used base in Jordan. Brent crude rose 3.4% to USD101.21/bbl and WTI gained 3.2% to USD96.05/bbl. US equities fell for a third…
Marketing communication: This document is a marketing presentation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research; and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the…
Marketing communication: This document is a marketing presentation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research; and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the…
Follow our podcasts by searching ‘ OCBC Research Insights ’ on Telegram! 1 By Global Markets | 9 September 2026 Daily Treasury Outlook Highlights Global: On geopolitics, Iran's attacks on Saudi energy facilities and the subsequent destruction of five Iranian…
Follow our podcasts by searching ‘ OCBC Research Insights ’ on Telegram! 1 By Global Markets | 9 September 2026 ASEAN-5 & India Assessing the impact of El Niño • We see India, the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia as the higher- exposure…
Marketing communication: This document is a marketing presentation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research; and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the…
OCBC's daily treasury outlook highlights key market movements and data releases. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have driven Brent crude to a six-week high, while a potential Iran-Oman accord eased some concerns. The Japanese yen strengthened…
Despite robust economic growth, India's contribution to global GDP has increased to 8.2% by 2025, yet the emergence of a sizeable consumer middle class is hampered by structural labor market weaknesses. Most employment is informal and low-value-added, and key…
ING expects a single Fed rate hike in September 2026, delaying but not cancelling a cyclical dollar decline projected for spring 2027. EUR/USD is forecast to end 2026 around 1.16, with USD/JPY likely trading in a 155-160 range near term. High yielders and…
The euro area Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 0.6% q/q, driven by volatile Irish data. Growth is expected to moderate to 0.2%-0.4% q/q in Q3 and Q4, with 2026 annual growth around 0.9%. Germany's growth forecast for 2026 was raised to 0.9% due to strong H1…
Marketing communication: This document is a marketing presentation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research; and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the…
North Asian currencies, led by the Korean won, have strengthened significantly, though USD/KRW may struggle to sustain sub-1350 levels. The Chinese yuan continues a steady appreciation, while the Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso face depreciation risks.…
OCBC's weekly macro views highlight escalating US-Iran tensions impacting oil markets, a strong US jobs report limiting USD downside, and several Asia-Pacific macro developments including Singapore's upward GDP revisions from the MAS SPF, resilient Australian…