Irregular and Unpredictable
中文标题
不规则且不可预测
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Natixis argues that a hotter-than-expected August CPI report has cemented a 25bp Fed hike at the September meeting, with headline CPI at 0.4% m/m (3.4% y/y) and core at 0.29% m/m (2.4% y/y), though the firm remains optimistic that inflation will continue to grind lower and believes market pricing of roughly 90bp of hikes over the next year is excessive. The desk favors US curve steepeners, particularly 20s30s, viewing the Treasury's larger but still small buybacks as ineffective in addressing the term-premium drivers of higher long-end yields, while foreign demand indicators for Treasuries—Japanese holdings, STRIPS activity, and auction participation—show stabilization at lower levels. In Latin America, Natixis expects the BCB to cut the Selic rate to 13.75% next week with additional cuts unlikely this year, sees the BCCh holding at 4.50% despite worsening growth forecasts, views Mexico's credible 2027 budget as reducing downgrade risk while low inflation masks a fragile fiscal anchor, and assigns a 40% probability to BCRP hikes before year-end.
- Institution
- Natixis
- Published
- 09/11/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · Fed Policy · Crude Oil (WTI)
- Time horizon
- next week · this year
Key arguments
- The August CPI report was hot enough to cement a 25bp Fed hike in September, with core CPI at 0.29% m/m and supercore at 51bps driven by an outsized education and communication services contribution.
- Despite the hot print, the year-over-year core rate fell to 2.4% from 2.5%, and Natixis remains optimistic that inflation will grind lower, making a full-fledged hiking cycle unnecessary.
- Market pricing of roughly 90bps of Fed hikes over the next year, or policy rate expectations above 4.5%, is excessive given the issue is slow disinflation rather than re-acceleration.
- Natixis favors steeper US curves, as much from a view that the front-end could be overshooting as from a long-standing negative view on the long-end.
- The Treasury's irregular and unpredictable debt management, including larger buybacks, adds to long-end pressure via higher term premium rather than solving the core drivers of higher long-dated yields.
- Buybacks should meaningfully impact the 20-year sector, where operations nearly match gross monthly supply, supporting 20s30s steepeners.
- Foreign demand for Treasuries is stabilizing at lower levels: Japanese holdings and MoF/BoP data show declines, August STRIPS growth was the smallest since June 2025, and foreign auction share has stabilized below late-2025 levels.
- In Brazil, the BCB is expected to cut the Selic to 13.75%, but the scope for further cuts is limited by above-target 2027-2029 inflation expectations of 4.29%, 3.80%, and 3.50%.
Key numbers
- US headline CPI (m/m, August)
- 0.4%
- US core CPI (m/m, August)
- 0.29%
- US headline CPI (y/y, August)
- 3.4%
- US core CPI (y/y, August)
- 2.4%
- US supercore CPI (m/m, August)
- 51bps
- US PPI (m/m, August)
- 0.4%
- US core PPI (m/m, August)
- 0.2%
- Fed hikes priced over one-year horizon
- ~90bps
Main risks
- A hot CPI print and additional tariff threats or higher oil prices could keep input costs elevated and delay disinflation, forcing more Fed hikes than Natixis expects.
- Market pricing of Fed hikes could continue to rise, causing front-end yields to overshoot and steepener positions to underperform if the belly sells off.
- The Treasury's irregular and unpredictable debt management injects uncertainty, raising term premium and keeping long-end yields higher for longer.
- Foreign demand for US Treasuries, particularly from Japan, could weaken further, pressuring yields and the curve.
- A Flavio Bolsonaro victory with a credible fiscal plan could accelerate BCB cuts, while a Lula win could slow them, creating two-sided BRL and rates risk.
- A Super El Niño could reverse Mexican agricultural deflation and push inflation back toward 4.0%, while the fiscal anchor remains wobbly due to gasoline subsidies.
- Rising inflation expectations in Peru and further oil price or El Niño shocks could force BCRP hikes beyond the two or three Natixis considers sufficient.
- Chilean growth could disappoint further, but supply shocks and El Niño keep the BCCh unable to cut, risking a prolonged economic slowdown.
Corresponding source evidence
In real life: we find the unpredictable terrifying.” -Mokokoma Mokhonoana CPI came inhotter than expected, helping to cement aFed hike next week.
· next weekStill, we are optimistic that inflation will grind lower in the coming months, making a full-fledged hiking cycle unnecessary.
Brazil –BCB tocut Selic to13.75%; additional cuts are probable, but unlikely this year.
· this year
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NatixisIrregular and Unpredictable | 09/11/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| Westpac / Westpac IQWEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY · Downward revisions to 2027 outlook | 10/18/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| SMBCUS Rates Strategy Daily · An [AI]nflationary Buildout | 10/16/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| MUFGcombined 16 oct 2026 | 10/16/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Natixis on 09/11/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction