Asia fx talking september 2026

Key arguments

• Korean won's 13% drop in USD/KRW is exceptional and a move below 1350 may be hard to sustain near-term due to possible Fed hike support.
• CNY strength is driven by exporter conversions from massive trade surplus, with risks tilted to downside, but yield spreads could attract bears if Fed hikes and PBoC cuts.
• INR supported by strong GDP growth, FCNR inflows exceeding USD 125bn, and improved BoP surplus, stabilizing USD/INR.
• IDR underperformance likely to remerge due to policy concerns, weak FDI, and widening current account deficit, with potential additional BI rate hike.
• PHP weakening bias persists due to elevated inflation and narrowing rate differentials with the US, with possible further BSP rate hike.
• SGD should outperform due to robust AI investment and potential MAS tightening, with October policy meeting live.
• TWD appreciation bias in medium term as headwinds fade, with potential CBC rate hike by year-end.

Corresponding source evidence

1. However, a 13% drop in a couple of months is exceptional for USD/KRW and a move below 1350 may be difficult to sustain this month. · this month
2. We hold our 6.67-6.92 fluctuation band for 2H26, and risks remain tilted to the downside.
3. A contrarian view: yield spreads might further widen if the Fed hikes and the PBoC cuts rates (the current ING forecast), and at some point it may draw CNY bears back into action.