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Gold steadied near USD 4,125 after hitting a seven-week low as US 10-year Treasury yields rose above 5.25%, a level rarely seen since 2002. The 30-year hit 5.58% and the 2-year 4.95%. President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,…
Eurozone inflation and confidence data are secondary to global crosswinds, with second-round effects unlikely to appear this week. The ECB sees higher long-term rates as a growth headwind and maintains a measured response. Consumer confidence is the weak…
Higher oil prices and US yields above 5.2% are deepening Asian FX divergence. Brent stayed above $100/bbl while the dollar index rose to about 101.1, a negative terms-of-trade shock for Asia's oil importers. Asia currencies remain above Q1 2025 lows, helped…
Brent held above $107/b and WTI near $94/b as stalled US-Iran talks kept the Strait of Hormuz uncertain, though Saudi Arabia restored roughly half of its 7mb/d East-West pipeline, with flows of at least 3.5mb/d resuming at Yanbu; full restoration could take…
Societe Generale sustainable finance specialists argue, in a Loan Market Association Horizons article, that scaling climate adaptation finance requires banks to move beyond mitigation-focused lending. The evidence base is institutional commentary rather than…
This State Street research article explains how sustainability considerations are integrated into a systematic active fixed income framework, comparing a SAFI Climate strategy with a standard SAFI strategy across US and EUR investment-grade corporate bond…
Invesco argues the structural AI bull market remains intact despite higher oil prices and interest rates stalling the broadening trade. Meta's Muse personal AI agent, launched September 8, became the top free US app, lifting Meta shares over 11% in a session…
OCBC's 28 September 2026 outlook sees the RBA hiking 25bp to 4.60% on persistent core inflation and resilient demand. The Trump-Xi summit extended the US-China trade truce to 10 January 2027 with reciprocal tariff cuts on about USD30bn of goods, but rare…
The ECB hike discount is stretched, but hard to lean against given high uncertainty. Liquidity conditions will continue to tighten. Repo markets should absorb the adjustment, but a higher reserve requirement, year-end pressures or ECB borrowing stigma could…
President Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has revived supply-disruption fears, pushing Brent above USD 107 while global bond yields hit fresh cycle highs. Gold broke below USD 4,230 support and silver tumbled over 4% as…
MUFG argues the macro backdrop remains supportive of a stronger US dollar, with the dollar index near year-to-date highs and next resistance at the 24 June high of 101.80. Oil near USD110/bbl on stalled US-Iran talks keeps upward pressure on US yields;…
The dollar's recent rally faces downside risks as markets await US September jobs data, with October FOMC hike pricing at 16bp. ING expects a consensus 90k payrolls print with possible August revisions lower, keeping hike odds above 50% but unlikely to…
Asia FX faces a tougher external backdrop as elevated Brent crude and high global yields reinforce each other; the spot-over-front-month Brent premium has risen to about US$18/bbl from a negative spread in early September, and the US 10-year yield is above…
MUFG reviews September central bank week: the ECB and Fed hiked 25bp, the BoE held, and the BoJ hiked 25bp in a 7-2 vote. From 9 to 25 September, US and European curves flattened while Japan's steepened slightly. A split BoJ vote and reflation-linked…
Global rates rose and pulled New Zealand along. Strong US data and resurgent oil pushed US yields higher, lifting NZ rates and cutting the trade-weighted index 4% below the RBNZ's September MPS assumption. Markets price about a 75% chance of an OCR hike on 28…
Scotiabank's Latam Weekly previews Chile GDP, Peru CPI and Colombia's BanRep decision, plus Mexican trade and Brazilian industrial production, ahead of Friday's US nonfarm payrolls. BanRep is likely to hold at 12.00%. Despite weak Chilean activity, the BCCh's…
TD Economics reports the global bond selloff intensified, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high of 5.22% on strong PMIs, hawkish Fed unity and weak auction demand. WTI fell 6% to about $94 on Saudi pipeline resumption, though refined products…
MUFG expects the BoE to deliver 25bp hikes in November and February, taking Bank Rate to 4.25%, after hawkish MPC comments and PMI price pressures. UK fiscal headroom has likely shrunk by about £15bn, leaving under £10bn before energy support decisions. In…
The ECB could raise rates in December unless the Gulf crisis resolves quickly, as energy costs push euro area inflation higher while consumption and confidence stay fragile. The UK and Japan are slowing but rate rises are still likely by year-end. In the US,…
Intesa Sanpaolo forecasts Italy's gross government issuance at EUR545bn in 2026, down from an estimated EUR547bn in 2025, with net issuance of EUR100bn. The plan features EUR256bn of BTPs and EUR183bn of BOTs, alongside BTP inflation-linked (EUR34bn), CCTeu…