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Poland's July current account deficit widened to €2.4bn from €2.2bn in June, keeping the 12-month rolling gap at 1.1% of GDP. A larger goods deficit (€1.8bn) and a surprise fall in the services surplus to €2.7bn drove the move. China became Poland's top goods…
Natixis expects the FOMC to raise the policy rate to a 4.0% upper bound at the September 2026 meeting, the first hike in three years and the first under Chair Warsh. August core CPI came in above expectations on one-off factors, cementing hike expectations. A…
Oil gained roughly 2–3% after a Saudi pipeline shutdown and postponed Middle East talks with Iran, pressuring stocks and bonds. Equities fell across major indexes, with Nasdaq down about 1.5%. US Treasury yields were little changed after Friday's CPI-driven…
The ECB raised its main policy rate 25bp to 2.5% and revised up growth and inflation forecasts, with inflation seen peaking at 3.6% in Q4 2026; markets priced half a hike in October and more than three additional hikes by mid-2027, a hawkish read despite no…
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline closure after drone attacks halts a 5 mb/d export route, putting about 4% of global supply at risk and pushing Brent above $107. Equities fell as AI names unwound and the Fed is expected to hike 25bp on Wednesday. Gold eased…
US core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, lifting market-implied odds of a 25bp Fed hike above 85% to a 3.75-4% band. UMich 1-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%. The 10-year UST yield reached 4.96-4.97%, near a three-year high; the S&P 500 gained 0.9% Friday but…
The 18th BRICS summit in New Delhi produced a unanimous declaration on September 12, 2026, but the significant development was a Modi-Xi bilateral meeting, the first Chinese visit to India since 2019, where both agreed differences should not become disputes.…
OCBC now expects a 25bp Fed hike at the September FOMC to a 3.75-4.00% target range, after US headline CPI held at 3.4% YoY with core easing to 2.4% and gasoline contributing 0.14pp. The ECB delivered its second 2026 hike, lifting the deposit rate to 2.50%.…
Westpac reports the DXY eased from 99.96 to 99.1 over the past month, with the yen cross the dominant driver, as USD/JPY broke through 155 and tested 154. The move is contingent on the Bank of Japan delivering hikes priced through mid-2027 and on authorities…
Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM in July, lifting market-implied odds of a 25bp Fed hike above 85%. Brent settled at $106.60, up 9.9% on the week, after the temporary closure of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from…
Westpac upgraded its June quarter New Zealand GDP forecast to +0.2% from a previous -0.1%, lifting annual growth to 2.4% as a weak year-earlier quarter drops out. Seasonal distortions may subtract around 0.3ppts, implying a healthier 0.5% underlying pace. The…
Global bond yields rose unusually across developed markets. The ECB raised its policy rate 25bp to 2.5%, revised up growth and inflation, with inflation peaking at 3.6% in Q4 2026 before returning to around 2%; markets priced 50% odds of an October hike and…
BNP Paribas expects the FOMC on September 15-16 to deliver the first Fed rate hike since May 2023, joining the ECB and BoJ in tightening. US growth runs near 2.2% y/y, unemployment is falling, core CPI at 0.29% m/m exceeds the bank's 0.2% trigger, and energy…
AI investment is accelerating, with capex at leading technology firms expected around USD 800 billion in 2026 and cumulative investment estimated between USD 4 trillion and USD 8 trillion over five years. However, compute capacity, energy infrastructure and…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707…
A one-off shock, or a repeatable engine outside the United States—and where does profit accrue across the AI stack? Across roughly eight weeks in mid-2026, five Chinese developers shipped six frontier-adjacent releases. That significance is not any single…
Natixis argues that a hotter-than-expected August CPI report has cemented a 25bp Fed hike at the September meeting, with headline CPI at 0.4% m/m (3.4% y/y) and core at 0.29% m/m (2.4% y/y), though the firm remains optimistic that inflation will continue to…
The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is on track for a fifth straight weekly gain and a record high, up about 2% on the week and over 36% year-to-date, but gains are increasingly concentrated in energy. Brent crude jumped more than 6% on Thursday after…
August US CPI report showed headline inflation rising 0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y, while core CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.29% m/m and 2.4% y/y. This data is sufficient to nudge the Fed into a rate hike at the upcoming meeting, though it does not signal a…
Natixis estimates euro area R-star at 2.2%, marginally below the ECB deposit rate of 2.5%, implying a only modestly restrictive policy stance. The report argues that real interest rates and R-star share common global drivers - productivity, demographics, the…