Polands current account balance stabilised in july with china the biggest importer

中文标题

波兰7月经常账户余额趋于稳定，中国成为最大进口来源国

ING THINK09/14/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Poland's July current account deficit widened to €2.4bn from €2.2bn in June, keeping the 12-month rolling gap at 1.1% of GDP. A larger goods deficit (€1.8bn) and a surprise fall in the services surplus to €2.7bn drove the move. China became Poland's top goods supplier, overtaking Germany. Higher energy prices are expected to widen the gap to 1.6% of GDP in 2026, with risks tilted to the upside, though the imbalance remains too small to materially affect the zloty.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 09/14/2026
Research topic: Crude Oil (WTI) · Natural Gas
Time horizon: 2026

Crude Oil (WTI) · WTI Natural Gas · NATGAS

Key arguments

July current account deficit widened to €2.4bn from €2.2bn in June, mainly on a larger goods trade deficit and a surprise drop in the services surplus.
On a 12-month rolling basis the deficit stabilised at 1.1% of GDP, with the trade deficit widening to 1.5% of GDP from 1.4%.
China overtook Germany as Poland's largest goods supplier for the first time on record.
The external gap is expected to widen further on higher energy prices, with risks to the 1.6% of GDP 2026 forecast tilted slightly to the upside, but the imbalance remains too small to significantly affect the zloty.

Key numbers

July current account deficit: €2.4bn, following €2.2bn in June
12-month rolling deficit: 1.1% of GDP
July goods trade deficit: €1,843m, following €1,469m in June
July services trade surplus: €2,722m, following €3,900m in June
Sensitivity of monthly crude import bill: US$10/bbl increase raises expenditure by PLN1.1bn

Main risks

Higher oil prices: a sustained US$10/bbl rise adds PLN13.2bn to annual imports, equivalent to 0.3% of GDP.
Higher natural gas prices: TTF front-month above €80/MWh, with a €10/MWh change affecting the monthly import bill by PLN0.15bn.
The NBP commentary does not explain which services category recorded the largest increase in outflows, leaving uncertainty about the services surplus decline.

Corresponding source evidence

It is to widen further in the remaining months on the back of higher energy imports and a larger trade gap with China Warsaw, Poland The current account deficit was slightly wider in July (€2.4bn) than in June (€2.2bn), close to the consensus estimate (€2.1bn) and our forecast (€1.9bn).
The traditional surplus in services trade was €2,722m, although this was significantly lower than a month earlier (€3,900m).
Saudi Arabia had used this route to bypass the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and transport around 7m barrels of oil per day, so the development could lead to higher oil prices and even supply shortages.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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