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The dollar is modestly weaker, having ended four straight weekly gains that lifted the index to a year-to-date high of 102.95, before falling back below the 200-week moving average near 102.10. Stronger US inflation data failed to extend gains, prompting some…
Scotiabank's weekly preview argues Canadian core inflation remains at or above the BoC's 2% target, with traditional core running near 3% m/m SAAR for four straight months and another firm print expected, supporting the view that policy is too loose. BoC…
National resale activity weakened in September: unit sales fell 2.3% m/m (sa), erasing nearly half of April–July gains, with a 7.7% y/y (nsa) decline. New listings eased 1.8% m/m. The sales-to-new listings ratio slipped to 48.8% and months of inventory rose…
US September CPI accelerated to 3.7% y/y, with core at 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m, as price pressures broadened across goods, shelter and services. PPI jumped 1.3% m/m (6.3% y/y). Retail sales rose 0.8%, but ex-auto/gas gained just 0.2%. TD expects the Fed to skip…
US inflation surprised higher, driven by tariffs and broad price pressures, but ING expects tariff refunds, cooling rents and 3% wage growth to bring inflation near 2% by Q2 next year. The AI investment boom, about a third of GDP growth this year, keeps…
Non-energy import prices rose 6.0% y/y in September, the fastest since 2022, with capital goods up 8.4% y/y, the fastest since December 1987. SMBC attributes this to the AI buildout plus an effective tariff rate that has climbed to 9% from a post-substitution…
US September inflation drifted higher, yet Natixis argues a Fed pause is more likely than not, giving room to complete scaling into 2yr longs. Treasuries rallied despite bad inflation data and a silent Warsh, suggesting the market is forming a floor. The bank…
SMBC argues the post-CPI Treasury rally suggests the economy's sensitivity to rate levels has increased, with stress among weaker AI and high-yield borrowers tightening financial conditions. But continued equity gains keep economy-wide tightening modest, so…
Fed Chair Warsh refused to prejudge upcoming meetings or offer forward guidance, while repeating upbeat US outlook views. BoC Governor Macklem said the Bank has not yet raised rates but is asking whether energy-driven inflation will force a hike. US Commerce…
Fed Chair Warsh gave no policy guidance, which markets read as endorsing current pricing; the October hike probability dropped from 26% to 14% and the 2-year yield fell 3-4bps. The dollar was broadly unchanged. Warsh dwelt on AI, calling it a near-term…
MUFG expects the Philippine central bank to raise its policy rate 25bp to 5.25% on higher oil prices and Super El Niño risk, while the Bank of Korea is seen holding at 3.00% after back-to-back hikes. Bank Indonesia is widely expected to hold at 5.75%, though…
MUFG reports the USD is on course to weaken this week, ending four straight weekly gains. After jumping to a fresh year-to-date high on stronger September US CPI, the dollar quickly gave back those gains. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates this month;…
High oil prices lift Canada's aggregate purchasing power while squeezing households. Real GDP rose 1.1% year-over-year in Q2, but real GDI climbed 3.1% as terms of trade added about $12 billion per quarter. Gains concentrate in oil-producing regions:…
September producer prices rose 1.3% m/m and core PPI 0.7% m/m, both more than double consensus, while headline retail sales gained 0.8% versus 0.3% expected. SMBC tracks 3.4% QoQar real PCE growth (revised up 0.1pp) and 4.0% Q3 GDP. Despite Fed pushback on an…
Sovereign bonds are rallying while equities waver, with Treasury yields down 6–10bps in a bull flattener and the US 10-year 22bps below its peak ten days ago. The article questions whether this is a durable rotation into bonds or a brief hiccup. It previews…
Westpac's October 2026 Outlook says markets have had little respite: bond yields have jumped, led by US 10-year benchmarks up 27bps above 5% and French bonds up 40bps, driven by real yields after the Fed's September hike. Westpac expects one more Fed hike,…
The dollar gave back gains made after a stronger-than-expected September US CPI, with the index falling from a year-to-date high of 102.95 toward 102.00. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 18bps to 4.95% post-CPI before retreating to near 4.70%. MUFG…
RBC cardholder data show Canadian core retail sales, excluding gasoline and autos, rose 0.4% on a three-month average in September, down from 0.6% in August. Discretionary services led at 1%, easing from 1.5%, while discretionary goods were flat at -0.1%.…
September core CPI rose 0.33% m/m, above the 0.2% consensus. The report argues that shelter inflation stabilizing near 3.2% y/y has removed a key source of disinflationary momentum, leaving core CPI trending sideways and inflation likely to stay elevated near…
Natixis assesses LatAm's uneven El Niño exposure. Peru is most exposed (fishing, agriculture), Colombia highly exposed via drought hitting agriculture and hydropower, risking energy and food inflation. Brazil and Chile are ambiguous. Argentina may gain 1.08%…