GLOBAL ECONOMICSDAILY POINTS
中文标题
全球经济学 · 每日要点
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Fed Chair Warsh refused to prejudge upcoming meetings or offer forward guidance, while repeating upbeat US outlook views. BoC Governor Macklem said the Bank has not yet raised rates but is asking whether energy-driven inflation will force a hike. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick is again blocking trade progress, this time with Mexico, opposing cuts to 25% auto and 50% steel/aluminum tariffs. Markets ended the week little changed; oil edged up a few dimes.
- Institution
- Scotiabank Economics
- Published
- 10/16/2026
- Research topic
- Fed Policy
- Time horizon
- Not explicitly stated
Key arguments
- Warsh explicitly rejects forward guidance, saying he does not prejudge meetings and the Fed is in a new chapter.
- Macklem acknowledges the BoC has not yet hiked but is openly debating whether energy price increases will force a rate rise.
- Lutnick is undermining US-Mexico trade talks by opposing tariff cuts, mirroring his role in the collapse of US-Canada talks.
- Scotiabank forecasts one more Fed hike this year, likely in December, despite little chance priced for October.
Key numbers
- US auto tariffs on Mexico
- 25%
- US steel and aluminum tariffs on Mexico
- 50%
- Canadian existing home sales m/m (Sep)
- -2.3%
- US industrial production forecast m/m (Sep)
- 0.4%
- Fed funds target rate
- 4.00%
Main risks
- Lutnick's opposition could prevent a US-Mexico trade deal, and any deal needs congressional approval after January when Democrats may control a chamber.
- Macklem's openness to hiking suggests the BoC could tighten if energy prices keep rising, potentially weighing on Canadian bonds and the loonie.
- The Fed's December hike forecast is not priced by markets, creating scope for a repricing if data shift.
Corresponding source evidence
WHAT FED CHAIR WARSH SAID Warsh said nothing that would even remotely inform nearer term monetary policy considerations other than to repeat that he doesn’t believe in forward guidance into meetings.
Warsh pulled out the pom poms as cheerleader in chief for the US economy with generally upbeat remarks on the outlook.
He also noted that the first “field hearing” by one of five task forces assigned the task of opining on AI and its effects on productivity and jobs will be held in San Francisco on November 16 th .
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Scotiabank Economics on 10/16/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction