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US producer inflation accelerated to 5.4% YoY in August and energy prices jumped, with Brent up over 6% near USD108 on Strait of Hormuz tensions. Markets price a roughly 70% probability of a 25bp Fed hike at the 15-16 September meeting. The ECB raised its…
Oil prices surged again, with ICE Brent settling more than 6% higher and nearing $110/bbl in early trading, as the market reprices the duration and severity of the Middle East conflict. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain well below pre-war levels, and…
Investors are pricing in a higher likelihood that the Federal Reserve will hike rates after core CPI inflation rose in August more than economists had estimated. However, a rate hike may not keep the US stock market from climbing higher, says Jonathan…
Natixis analyzes Mexico's proposed 2027 budget, which reduces the public sector financing requirement to 3.9% of GDP from 4.1% in 2026, with gross debt rising modestly to 55% of GDP. Revenues are set to increase to 23.0% of GDP on stricter tax deduction…
J.P. Morgan Global Research brings you the latest updates and analysis of President Trump’s tariff proposals and their economic impact. Since taking office, President Trump has enacted a growing list of tariffs on specific countries and commodities — a move…
A summer cocktail of earnings data, geopolitical headlines, and “policy events” has prompted investors to increasingly scrutinise equity and bond markets. On the one hand, equities have held up, even advanced, on the back of a strong earnings season, which…
Marketing communication: This document is a marketing presentation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research; and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the…
Marketing communication: This document is a marketing presentation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research; and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com SCOTIABANK FORECAST September 9, 2026 Contributors Olivier Gervais Director, Modelling and…
Marketing communication: This document is a marketing presentation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research; and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the…
Declining correlations, rising tracking error, and greater country-level dispersion suggest international markets are delivering increasingly distinct outcomes from US equities. While global equity markets still share a common equity beta, their return paths…
The euro area Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 0.6% q/q, driven by volatile Irish data. Growth is expected to moderate to 0.2%-0.4% q/q in Q3 and Q4, with 2026 annual growth around 0.9%. Germany's growth forecast for 2026 was raised to 0.9% due to strong H1…
Marketing communication: This document is a marketing presentation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research; and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the…
Scotiabank Economics maintains its June forecast with Canada's growth expected at 0.9% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, while the Bank of Canada is likely to raise rates twice late this year. The US GDP growth forecast is 2.0% for 2026 and 1.9% for 2027, with the…
The US August jobs report showed a strong rebound with nonfarm payrolls rising 162k, well above consensus, and broad-based gains. This reduces the case for a dovish Fed stance, making next week's CPI the decisive factor for September's rate decision.…
Scotiabank Economics expects central banks in Chile and Peru to hold policy rates steady, with regional inflation prints and U.S. CPI in focus. Chile's inflation is seen reaccelerating but growth is weak, while Peru's inflation is above target but driven by…
Natixis notes that Fed Governor Waller's September vote will depend on next week's CPI data, reducing hike odds to 52%; expects August jobs data to disappoint. Rates strategy is neutral directionally but more confident in 2s10s steepeners. In LatAm, Brazil's…
Natixis expects the ECB to hike all three key rates by 25bp at the September 10 meeting, bringing the deposit facility to 2.50%, and then hold rates steady through end-2027, conditional on easing Middle East tensions and no second-round inflation effects. The…
Natixis analyzes the digital euro's impact on European banks, seeing it as a sovereignty project with contained financial risks but significant strategic challenges. The ECB's holding limits and other safeguards limit deposit outflows, thus preserving bank…
Natixis outlines that Germany's September 2026 regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin, and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania could see the far-right AfD make historic gains, possibly leading a state government for the first time. While such an outcome would…