Latam Weekly: Regional CPI, BCCh and BCRP to HoldGLOBAL ECONOMICS
中文标题
拉丁美洲周刊:地区CPI、智利央行和秘鲁央行或将按兵不动
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Scotiabank Economics expects central banks in Chile and Peru to hold policy rates steady, with regional inflation prints and U.S. CPI in focus. Chile's inflation is seen reaccelerating but growth is weak, while Peru's inflation is above target but driven by temporary supply shocks. Mexico's household incomes are supported by minimum wage hikes despite softer formal employment.
- Institution
- Scotiabank Economics
- Published
- 09/04/2026
- Research topic
- economic growth · Chile GDP · Peru GDP
- Time horizon
- 2026 · 2028-2030 · end-2026
Key arguments
- Chile's headline inflation likely reaccelerated to 3.8% y/y in August from 3.5% in July, driven by food prices.
- The BCCh is expected to hold its policy rate at 4.50%, balancing inflationary risks against weak growth.
- Peru's BCRP is expected to keep its reference rate unchanged at 4.25% for a twelfth consecutive month.
- Peru's inflation reached a three-year high of 4.4% y/y in August, but is seen as transitory supply-side pressures.
- Mexico's minimum wage increases have supported household incomes, but formal employment growth has moderated.
- Brazil's headline inflation is expected to tick down to around 4.3% y/y in August, with potential BCB rate cuts.
- Colombia's inflation is expected to rise to around 6.2% y/y headline and 6.3% core in August.
Key numbers
- Chile August CPI y/y forecast
- 3.8%
- Chile policy rate
- 4.50%
- Peru reference rate
- 4.25%
- Peru August CPI y/y
- 4.4%
- Mexico August CPI y/y forecast
- 3.3%
- Brazil August CPI y/y forecast
- 4.3%
- Colombia August CPI y/y forecast
- 6.2%
- Peru GDP growth forecast 2028-30
- 4.0%
Main risks
- In Chile, risks include El Niño effects on agricultural prices and a possible third consecutive quarter of GDP contraction.
- In Peru, risks include sustained elevated inflation expectations and a strong El Niño event that could intensify pressures.
- In Mexico, higher minimum wages may lead to a crowding-out effect on formal employment.
- The U.S.-Canada trade war and potential Mexico-U.S. tensions could affect regional growth.
Corresponding source evidence
we believe the central bank will slash its 2026 growth rate projection of 1 -1.75% (June MPR) to 0.25 -0.75%.
· 2026The upward revision of the average annual GDP growth forecast for 2028–2030 from 3.2% to 4.0%, driven primarily by strong private investment.
· 2028-2030Our year-end inflation forecast stands at 4.2%. It was recently confirmed that the El Niño phenomenon will reach a strong intensity during the summer and the probability of it being extraordinary has increased significantly, which would generate upward pressures toward the end of the year. For the time being, we expect the policy interest rate to remain at 4.25% throughout the year, provided that price fluctuations continue to be transitory.
· end-2026
Conditions / invalidation
- Particularly if mining and infrastructure projects are unlocked.
- Provided price fluctuations continue to be transitory.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Scotiabank Economics on 09/04/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction