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Markets enter the week cautiously after Friday's weak 29k US payrolls print, with politics dominating. Quebec votes tonight: the separatist PQ may win around 30% and a minority or slim majority, yet majorities oppose both the PQ and separation. Quebec already…
Natixis expects France's 2027 draft budget (PLF/PLFSS) to miss its 5.0%-of-GDP deficit target by about 0.5pp, forecasting 5.5% — a slight deterioration from 5.4% in 2026. With a fragmented National Assembly and presidential elections in April-May 2027, the…
The US is pursuing a government-led mine-to-magnet strategy combining domestic production, friend-shoring with Australia and Brazil, and recycling to reduce reliance on China's rare earth supply chain. Federal support now includes purchase agreements, price…
A weak US September payrolls print of 29k cooled October Fed hike odds to 20%, lifting the Nasdaq 100 to a record close. The euro fell to a new cycle low of 1.1161 against the dollar, pressured by French fiscal turmoil and widening OAT-Bund spreads, which…
Brazil's general election leads a heavy Latam week. Polls put Lula about 4-5ppts ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro, with a second round on October 25. September CPI is seen rising 0.1-0.3ppts across Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Brazil. Scotiabank expects the BCRP to…
US nonfarm payrolls rose only 29k in September versus 90k expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% and participation rose to 61.8%. Natixis reads a stable but not inflationary labor market, with wage growth of just 13bps m/m, reducing urgency…
Natixis reports September US nonfarm payrolls rose just 29k, below the 90k expectation and August's revised 133k, pulling the three-month average to 51k. Unemployment edged up to 4.2% as participation improved, and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% m/m…
Eurozone September flash inflation surprised upside at 3.8% y/y on energy and services; French OAT yield surpassed 4.9% and HICP hit 3.4%. US Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2% annualised, but September payrolls rose only 29,000 and unemployment climbed to 4.2%;…
Natixis LATAM Macro Insights, based on late-September meetings with two Banxico board members, reports that at its September 24 meeting Banxico kept its policy rate at 6.50% and signaled it would not respond mechanically to Federal Reserve actions amid rising…
MUFG's Q3 2026 review shows earnings absorbing a global duration selloff: Brent rose 42% to about $104, gold gained 3.7% to $4,517, and the 10-year UST yield climbed 68bp to 5.28%, with 30-year yields at multi-decade highs. The dollar firmed modestly and…
Natixis's September 2026 US dual mandate snapshot: August payrolls rebounded 162k, broadly based, erasing earlier soft prints, while unemployment held at 4.1%. Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m and headline 0.4% m/m. Because most policymakers already saw labor as near…
The report estimates September nonfarm payrolls at 60k, below the 90k consensus and the prior 162k. It expects unemployment to edge up to 4.2% on higher prime-age participation, with average hourly earnings around 0.3% m/m. Unless CPI on October 14 is broadly…
MUFG's October 2026 FX outlook sees a US dollar-led world: DXY closed September up 2.0% after the Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00%, with 10-year UST yields up 53bps. Six G10 central banks hiked, and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz closure keeps energy prices elevated.…
Northwest European gas storage sits at 62% capacity, about 10bcm below year-ago levels, setting up a tight Q4-26 winter. Under the base case TTF averages €76/MWh, peaking at €80/MWh; an adverse cold winter scenario averages €122/MWh. The energy-driven shock…
Natixis' survey of 45 respondents on Brazil's October 4 election shows a split market reaction. A Lula win is dominated by fiscal-responsibility concerns (76%), with 83% expecting USD/BRL above 5.30 by end-October. A Flavio Bolsonaro win is seen as…
A 25 September 2026 snapshot ranked implied volatility for 511 option underlyings against their own past year. Valero and EWZ hit IV rank 100, while Broadcom and NVIDIA sat near their own floors. Rank and percentile diverged for names like Deutz and HYG. The…
Scotiabank's Latam Weekly previews Chile GDP, Peru CPI and Colombia's BanRep decision, plus Mexican trade and Brazilian industrial production, ahead of Friday's US nonfarm payrolls. BanRep is likely to hold at 12.00%. Despite weak Chilean activity, the BCCh's…
Natixis expects euro area headline inflation at 3.55% yoy in September, up from 3.25% in August, with core at 2.55% from 2.40%. Rising energy prices are the primary driver: Brent near $102/bbl, up 51% yoy, is set to exert stronger upward pressure on headline.…
Natixis expects one more Fed hike in December and an elevated U.S. Treasury curve, keeping the Mexican peso under pressure. Banxico held its policy rate at 6.50% unanimously in September, stating it will not react mechanically to U.S. monetary policy but will…
US senators and governors have proposed banning diesel exports to relieve farmers. Due to legal delegation, President Trump could enact such a ban without further Congressional action. The US exports 1.0–1.5 mb/d, much to Latin America. Mexico, Chile, and…