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Risk sentiment improved briefly on reports of a phased US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but hurdles remain. Tightening bias broadened: Norway hiked, Sweden signalled a hike, BoE's Lombardelli and Breeden moved closer to a hike, and Fed's Paulson…
ING expects the RBA to raise rates 25bp, citing tight labour markets, upside Q2 GDP surprise and firm inflation; August CPI seen at 4.1% YoY. China's official manufacturing PMI is forecast at 50.1 and non-manufacturing at 49.2. Japan's services PPI seen at…
Westpac's September 2026 Housing Pulse says Australia's housing correction has broadened and intensified since early 2026. Turnover may be stabilising but at a weak level, with prices still falling. With underlying inflation above the RBA's 2-3% target and…
Scotiabank's week-ahead preview sees September US nonfarm payrolls at 75k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, fading August's 162k as weather, local-government education and leisure hiring reverse. Canada's July GDP is tracked near +0.1% m/m with Q3 around 2%…
MUFG warns that a tougher external backdrop—higher US Treasury yields and Brent above $100/bbl—leaves Asia FX with a narrow path. The next US payrolls report is the key catalyst; consensus expects 100k jobs and unemployment at 4.1%. MUFG keeps a bias for…
The yen is the top performer after Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said President Trump expressed concern over yen weakness, while Growth Minister Kiuchi noted the communication that rate hikes are on the radar. US Treasury yields fell modestly, tightly…
MUFG flags contagion risk after the 2-year UST yield jumped 72bp in 21 days, the largest such move since March 2023. Forced selling by fast money could trigger liquidation of profitable AI equity and FX carry positions. The dollar has modestly retraced as…
Australia's August employment rose 39.5k but a 0.2ppt participation rebound lifted unemployment to 4.6%, keeping gradual labour-market easing intact. Westpac sees RBA supply assumptions as too weak. The BoJ hiked 25bp to 1.25% and may reach 1.5% by mid-2027.…
Markets were subdued as oil and bond yields rose. Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Red Sea oil facilities pushed Brent to $107/bbl and WTI to $94.72, outweighing hints of a US-Iran phased deal. The US-China trade truce was extended to January 2027 during Xi's…
Westpac's NZ Weekly Economic Insight examines the trend of rising global interest rates and questions whether New Zealand rates should follow them higher. The note does not present specific forecasts or targets, instead framing the debate around the…
US senators and governors have proposed banning diesel exports to relieve farmers. Due to legal delegation, President Trump could enact such a ban without further Congressional action. The US exports 1.0–1.5 mb/d, much to Latin America. Mexico, Chile, and…
MUFG's FX quant framework argues the 2026 yen appreciation differs from past corrections: the traditional drivers of structural yen weakness have shifted. The US-Japan 10-year nominal yield differential has narrowed to roughly 209bps from about 399bps during…
Natixis argues Germany's 2026 collective bargaining round should not trigger euro-area second-round effects. Nominal wage growth is forecast to slow to about 3.8% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027 from 4.4% in 2025, with negotiated wages at 2.6% YoY in June 2026 and…
Global bonds extended their slide, with the US 10-year yield at 5.1142% and the 30-year near 5.4%, pressuring US equities. Robust US September PMIs (manufacturing 57, services 58.7) reinforced growth expectations. Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would stay…
The global fixed income sell-off continues without clear resolution, with the US dollar strengthening as US yields rose across the curve. The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed roughly 60bps this month, approaching the scale of the March move after the…
Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in August from 4.5% in July, despite employment rising by 39,000 as participation climbed 0.2pp to 67.1%. Part-time jobs increased by 46,000 while full-time fell by 6,000; hours worked rose 0.7% m/m and…
MUFG flags elevated USD/JPY volatility over Japan's autumn holidays after the BOJ hiked to 1.25% with two dissents while the Fed delivered a unanimous 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00%. The pair pushed above 157.50; MUFG's forecast range is 155.00-159.00, with…
Global bonds extended their selloff, lifting the US 10-year yield to 5.1142% and the 30-year to near 5.4%, with European curves also higher. Strong September flash PMIs and a weak USD70bn 5-year auction reinforced rate-hike expectations. US equities fell (S&P…
Rising oil prices, strong US PMI data, hawkish Fed Governor Barr comments and weak demand at a five-year Treasury auction pushed the US 10-year yield back above 5.0%, pressuring global equities and lifting the dollar. Brent rose 4.2% to US$103/bbl after…
Natixis launched an anonymous two-minute survey on Brazil's October 4 general election and post-election expectations, including views on the policy outlook and the BRL. A second round would be held October 25 if no candidate wins over 50% of valid votes.…