OCBC Daily Credit Snapshot 24 September 2026

中文标题

OCBC每日信用快照 2026年9月24日

OCBC Research09/24/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Global bonds extended their slide, with the US 10-year yield at 5.1142% and the 30-year near 5.4%, pressuring US equities. Robust US September PMIs (manufacturing 57, services 58.7) reinforced growth expectations. Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed until its conditions are met, lifting Brent to USD103.08 and WTI to USD92.16. The US-China trade truce was extended to 10 January. Credit spreads were mixed: US HY widened 8bp, Asia HY and IG tightened.

Institution: OCBC Research
Published: 09/24/2026
Research topic: S&P 500
Time horizon: June 2026 · 2026 · 2027 · September 2026 · May 2026

S&P 500 · SPX

Key arguments

Fresh bond selling lifted yields across the US and Europe; US 10Y at 5.1142% and 30Y just below 5.4%, with Bunds, OATS and Gilts also higher in yield.
US September PMIs strengthened (manufacturing 57 vs 53.9; services 58.7 vs 56.5), extending the robust growth narrative.
Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would not be reopened until its conditions are met, reversing recent oil declines; Rubio called talks 'positive, but not a breakthrough'.
US-China trade truce extended to 10 January from 10 November ahead of the Xi-Trump White House summit.

Key numbers

US 10Y yield: 5.1142%
US 30Y yield: just under 5.4%
Brent crude: USD103.08/bbl
WTI: USD92.16/bbl
US HY spread: 274bp (+8bp)

Main risks

Further global bond selloff could tighten financial conditions and pressure risk assets.
Middle East escalation with Hormuz closure unresolved could keep oil elevated and revive inflation risk.
Credit dispersion: US HY widened 8bp while Asia HY tightened 15bp; trend may not persist.

Corresponding source evidence

The rut in the bond market knocked down US equities, with S&P & NASDAQ closing 0.75% and 1.1% lower, respectively.
DB most recently reported provisions of EUR460mn (38bps of average loans), down 11% q/q but up 9% y/y reflecting planned exits of certain non-performing exposures while overall portfolio performance remained stable with the non-performing loan ratio at 2.0% as of 30 June 2026 (stable compared to 31 December 2025). · June 2026
• In other comments at a Bank of America investor conference, Mr Akram expects Investment Banking performance to be flat or slightly down compared to a solid 3Q2025 performance.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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