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SMBC's October 2026 US macro forecast projects real GDP growth slowing from 4.0% annualized in 2026 Q3 to 2.3% by 2027 Q4, with Q4/Q4 growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. Core PCE inflation is expected to ease from 3.2% in 2026 Q4 to 2.5% by 2027 Q4. The…
Non-energy import prices rose 6.0% y/y in September, the fastest since 2022, with capital goods up 8.4% y/y, the fastest since December 1987. SMBC attributes this to the AI buildout plus an effective tariff rate that has climbed to 9% from a post-substitution…
September producer prices rose 1.3% m/m and core PPI 0.7% m/m, both more than double consensus, while headline retail sales gained 0.8% versus 0.3% expected. SMBC tracks 3.4% QoQar real PCE growth (revised up 0.1pp) and 4.0% Q3 GDP. Despite Fed pushback on an…
Sovereign bonds are rallying while equities waver, with Treasury yields down 6–10bps in a bull flattener and the US 10-year 22bps below its peak ten days ago. The article questions whether this is a durable rotation into bonds or a brief hiccup. It previews…
Scotiabank keeps its broad growth outlook largely unchanged: US activity is more resilient than earlier estimated after upward revisions (Q2 GDP +2.2%), while Canadian growth holds up and is expected to accelerate in 2027. Tighter financial conditions partly…
MUFG argues AI's capital-intensive expansion has become a singular secular theme pushing global capital markets into a new regime. Combined annual debt and equity issuance is seen exceeding $5 trillion in 2026 (equity $462bn, debt $3.6tn annualized), while…
Rising US Treasury yields are being read two ways: as an approaching debt crisis or as an economy resilient enough to support higher rates. The author finds no crisis signals—the dollar is firm, inflation expectations contained, and credit spreads mostly…
OCBC's weekly macro view sees global demand stabilising unevenly, led by AI investment. The Fed keeps further rate hikes in play, supporting the USD but capping breakout odds, while French fiscal fears cap EUR upside. Indonesia's headline CPI rose to 3.3% YoY…
Scotiabank's Global Week Ahead frames the coming week around US inflation data, the start of Q3 earnings season and central bank communications at the IMF/IIF Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The bank argues the Bank of Canada should fade jobs data and concentrate…
MUFG's October 2026 outlook sees an AI-driven investment boom of at least $400bn above pre-AI trend, heavily concentrated in computer equipment with annual growth near 80%, yet broad demand growth remains only 2.5–3.5%, like the shallow post-GFC expansion.…
SMBC's October 2026 outlook sees real GDP growth decelerating from 2.6% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, with quarterly growth slowing from 3.9% in Q3 2026 to 1.6-1.7% through 2027. Core PCE inflation is projected to ease from 3.1% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 2.3% in…
Schwab expects the Fed to raise rates only modestly, with a base case of two more hikes followed by a pause, since today's inflation is driven largely by supply constraints rather than excess demand. The AI capex boom supports growth and earnings, potentially…
The Fed is expected to hike an additional 80bp through December 2027, per SOFR futures, while PCE inflation reaches 3.4% and core PCE 3.1% Q4/Q4 in 2026. GDP is forecast at 2.3% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, with unemployment near 4.2% and payroll growth cooling…
The November 3 midterms could end unified government. The baseline, a Democratic House and a neck-and-neck Senate, implies legislative gridlock while the White House keeps leeway on tariffs, immigration, deregulation and foreign policy. Fiscal sticking…
AI has not yet caused broad labor-market disruption, but September 2026 nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000 versus a 90,000 consensus, with the three-month average at 51,000. Job losses are concentrated in Information and Finance, while Education and Health…
Canadian exports rose 2.5% in August, a sixth straight monthly surplus, aided by tariff front-running. Imports fell 2.0%, led by autos and gold. The US deficit widened to US$105bn on a 4.3% import surge. Canada's estimated effective tariff rate rose to 4.6%,…
PIMCO's October 2026 Cyclical Outlook foresees resilient global growth and moderating inflation over the next six to 12 months, underpinned by an AI capex boom, consumers and China absorbing higher costs, and gradual central bank action. However, the benign…
September 2026 was the worst month of the year for US IG (-2.72%), US HY (-2.52%) and Asia IG (-2.04%) total returns, with Asia USD HY relatively resilient at -1.20%. The Fed's first hike in roughly three years pushed the 10Y UST to a 2026 high of 5.29% (30Y…
Advanced economies show resilient growth despite oil price shocks, driven by AI-related capital spending. Inflation exceeds targets in the US, UK, and eurozone, expected to peak in late 2026 or early 2027, with risk of energy inflation broadening. Higher…
US headline PCE inflation held at 3.4% YoY and core at 3.0% in August, still above the Fed's 2% goal, with energy rebounding 2.3% MoM and goods inflation rising to 3.6% from 3.3%. Pay growth slowed to 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY, signaling labor slack. Australia's…