US MacroeconomicsJoseph Lavorgna 2026 2027 2026 2027

中文标题

美国宏观经济 · Joseph Lavorgna 2026 2027 2026 2027

SMBC10/16/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

SMBC's October 2026 US macro forecast projects real GDP growth slowing from 4.0% annualized in 2026 Q3 to 2.3% by 2027 Q4, with Q4/Q4 growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. Core PCE inflation is expected to ease from 3.2% in 2026 Q4 to 2.5% by 2027 Q4. The forecast implies the federal funds upper bound rising to 4.75% by 2027 Q2 and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.50% in 2027 Q2-Q4.

Institution: SMBC
Published: 10/16/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

Real GDP growth decelerates from a 4.0% annualized spike in 2026 Q3 to a 2.3% pace by 2027 Q1-Q4.
Core PCE inflation remains above 3% through 2026 Q4 before declining to 2.5% by 2027 Q4.
The forecast implies the Fed raises the federal funds upper bound to 4.75% by 2027 Q2, staying there through Q4.
The 10-year Treasury yield is projected at 5.29% in 2026 Q3, easing to 4.50% by 2027 Q2-Q4.

Key numbers

Real GDP 2026 Q4/Q4: 2.7%
Real GDP 2027 Q4/Q4: 2.3%
Core PCE 2026 Q4/Q4: 3.2%
Core PCE 2027 Q4/Q4: 2.5%
Fed funds upper bound 2027 Q2-Q4: 4.75%

Main risks

Forecasts are based on assumptions and parameters chosen in good faith but are not the only ones that could have been selected.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
SMBC Group trading desks may hold positions inconsistent with the views expressed.

Corresponding source evidence

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