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ING expects the Federal Reserve to deliver a 25bp rate hike on 16 September, framing it as a recalibration of policy rather than the start of a new tightening cycle. August payrolls beat all Bloomberg forecasts, headline CPI sits at 3.4% and core CPI ran at…
The options market underpriced the week almost everywhere: by the final session the Nasdaq 100 fund had used 91% of its expected band, gold 99% and the bitcoin fund 97%, while the S&P 500 spent 161% and closed below its lower bound. Premium was bid for a…
The G7 foreign exchange market is being driven by three converging forces: a yen surge to a seven-month high on expected BOJ tightening, Brent crude above $100 per barrel following US-Iran military escalation, and a synchronized global tightening cycle with…
The 14-18 September 2026 calendar is dominated by three G10 central bank decisions: the FOMC is expected to leave the target fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, the Bank of England is forecast to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, and the Bank of Japan is expected…
Global bond yields surged on September 10, 2026, after the ECB delivered a hawkish 25-bp hike and raised its 2027 and 2028 inflation forecasts, sending the German 2-year yield up 16 bp—its largest front-end jump in over 18 months—while crude oil prices spiked…
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25% at its 18 September meeting, with markets nearly pricing in another 25bp hike by year-end. Short-dated JPY rates have surged since July, partly driven by US Treasury FX…
The yen strengthened sharply as markets moved to fully price a Bank of Japan rate hike next week and a strong chance of another by year-end, prompting investors to avoid short-yen positions. The move lifted EUR/USD, but higher energy prices later pressured…
ING expects the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25% on Friday, with two more hikes to 1.75% by April 2027. Taiwan's CBC decision is a coin flip between a 12.5bp hike and a hold. China's August activity data should show industrial…
MUFG's FX Daily Snapshot argues the September 11 US CPI report is pivotal for Fed hike expectations and the dollar. Stronger PPI has lifted implied hikes to 18bp ahead of the FOMC, up from 13bp. An in-line or stronger 0.2% m/m CPI reading would sustain hike…
MUFG expects the September FOMC and BOJ meetings to reinforce a more differentiated Asia FX environment amid Brent above $100/bbl. With the Fed on hold and elevated US yields, a 25bps BOJ hike would tighten global liquidity and risk unwinding yen-funded carry…
The JPY has been the best-performing G10 currency over the past week, extending its rebound after USD/JPY failed to break back above 160.00 at the start of September and broke below support at 155.00. A 25bps BOJ hike is almost fully priced for the upcoming…
Scotiabank's September 2026 FX Outlook adopts a broadly bearish USD stance, arguing the DXY is in the early stages of a bearish reversal as rate differentials erode and G10 central banks turn hawkish. The Fed is forecast to hold at 3.75% through 2027, while…
Scotiabank's daily note flags a fully priced 25bp ECB deposit rate hike to 2.40%, with the key question being guidance after an October skip and a possible December move. Brent hovers near US$102/bbl and WTI around US$97, pushing US diesel to its highest…
Standard Chartered argues that the surge in Japan's 10-year government bond yield to a three-decade high of 3% has forced Prime Minister Takaichi to abandon her resistance to monetary tightening. Facing a fiscal emergency from mounting public debt, she has…
Brent crude crossed USD 100 after US strikes on Iranian tankers near Kharg Island, lifting the 10-year Treasury yield to a 2023 high of 4.845% and pushing the S&P 500 to a third straight decline of 0.48%. Dispersion dominated: Meta rose 6.55% on its Muse…
MUFG reports FX majors stable, with USD/JPY just above 153.00, as markets await the ECB meeting and US CPI. The US Treasury tripled its first larger long-term bond buyback to USD6bn, keeping the dollar about 1% weaker since the 19 August announcement. Brent…
The ECB raised the deposit rate 25bp to 2.50%, the upper end of its neutral estimate, with hawkish projection revisions and forcefuller warnings that Middle East conflict energy inflation is intensifying, making the adverse scenario (oil ~USD 100/bbl, gas…
J.P. Morgan Global Research brings you the latest updates and analysis of President Trump’s tariff proposals and their economic impact. Since taking office, President Trump has enacted a growing list of tariffs on specific countries and commodities — a move…
A summer cocktail of earnings data, geopolitical headlines, and “policy events” has prompted investors to increasingly scrutinise equity and bond markets. On the one hand, equities have held up, even advanced, on the back of a strong earnings season, which…
1 FX Focus │9th September 2026 FX Focus Navigating the fallout for the FX market from bond market sell-off 9 th September 2026 • Global bond yields have risen to fresh highs over the summer, driven mainly by higher energy prices &…