Asia week ahead: Japan and Taiwan rate decisions, key data on China and India · THINK Economic and financial analysis
中文标题
亚洲一周前瞻：日本与台湾利率决议、中国与印度关键数据 · THINK 经济与金融分析
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
ING expects the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25% on Friday, with two more hikes to 1.75% by April 2027. Taiwan's CBC decision is a coin flip between a 12.5bp hike and a hold. China's August activity data should show industrial production recovering to 4.9% YoY while fixed asset investment slumps to -7.4% YoY and retail sales stay weak at 0.7% YoY. India's CPI is forecast to rise to 4.7% YoY on food and fuel pressures.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/11/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · Fed Policy
- Time horizon
- Not explicitly stated
Key arguments
- The BoJ is expected to front-load tightening with a 25bp hike to 1.25% while inflation remains elevated, before the policy backdrop becomes more complicated after April.
- ING's base case includes two additional 25bp hikes in January and April 2027, taking the policy rate to 1.75%.
- Taiwan's CBC decision is close to a coin flip after a benign August inflation read, but strong GDP growth and elevated core inflation and PPI argue for a hike, in September or December.
- China's external-domestic divergence persists: industrial production outperforms on external demand while fixed asset investment slumps and consumption remains lacklustre.
- India's inflation rise is driven by food-price pressures from weak monsoons, especially sugar and rice, plus fuel-cost spillover into core inflation.
Key numbers
- BoJ policy rate hike
- 25bp to 1.25%
- BoJ terminal rate by April 2027
- 1.75%
- Japan August headline inflation (consensus)
- 2.0% YoY
- Japan August core inflation (consensus)
- 1.8% YoY
- Japan August export growth (consensus)
- 18.2% YoY
- Japan August import growth (consensus)
- 26.3% YoY
- Japan August trade deficit (consensus)
- $1.05tn
- Japan July core machine orders (consensus)
- -4.8% MoM, +9.2% YoY
Main risks
- The Fed decision before Taiwan's CBC meeting could shift the CBC outcome away from ING's base case.
- Taiwan's rate decision is explicitly described as close to a coin flip, making the hike call low-conviction.
- China's fiscal expenditure acceleration may not show up in August investment data, and the FAI slump could persist.
- India's inflation path depends on monsoon conditions and global fuel prices, both of which can surprise.
Corresponding source evidence
The logic is straightforward: policymakers may prefer to front‑load tightening while inflation remains elevated, and before the policy backdrop becomes more complicated after April.
Japan will release its August inflation data earlier that day.
Market consensus expects headline inflation to edge up to 2.0% year-on-year, while core inflation remains unchanged at 1.8%.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/11/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction