Reports are admitted only from public, source-verifiable pages. How Tlines structures a report, grouped by asset, publishing institution or topic below.
A triple threat of AI growth concerns, elevated bond yields and an oil price spike has driven broad risk-off flows, lifting the US dollar. The week ahead is packed with the FOMC, BoE and BoJ, while a 25bp BoJ hike is fully priced and Fed Chair Warsh is…
Every headline volatility measure fell Friday except skew, which rose 5.08% to 154.49 as the S&P 500 gained 0.86% to 7,656.98. The 18 September expiry prices a 1.33% move, down from 141 points, though three central bank decisions fall inside that window. The…
Oil gained roughly 2–3% after a Saudi pipeline shutdown and postponed Middle East talks with Iran, pressuring stocks and bonds. Equities fell across major indexes, with Nasdaq down about 1.5%. US Treasury yields were little changed after Friday's CPI-driven…
MUFG keeps a constructive ringgit view despite higher oil prices and rising subsidy costs. Malaysia's electronics trade surplus offsets the larger oil import bill, inflation near 1.8% and anchored expectations let Bank Negara hold at 2.75%, and returning…
In the week to 8 September 2026, speculators aggressively bought JPY, flipping a sizeable short to a small net long of 10,800 contracts ahead of the BoJ meeting, while the aggregate dollar long fell 29% to USD 19.5bn, a 14-week low. Copper's net long hit a…
The US dollar has strengthened only modestly ahead of this week's FOMC meeting, with the dollar index up 0.3% and back above its 200-day moving average near 99.150. Markets now price 22bps of hikes, up from 15bps a week ago, after August core CPI rose 0.3%…
The dollar enters the week stronger, supported by a hot CPI print that has nearly sealed a 25bp Fed hike on Wednesday and by rising oil after Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline following drone attacks from Iraq. ING favours moderate USD strength, sees…
CommBank expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates 0.25pp this week to 3.75%–4.00%, the first increase since July 2023, after August core inflation rose 0.3% and markets priced about an 85% chance of a hike. The Bank of England is seen holding at 3.75%,…
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline closure after drone attacks halts a 5 mb/d export route, putting about 4% of global supply at risk and pushing Brent above $107. Equities fell as AI names unwound and the Fed is expected to hike 25bp on Wednesday. Gold eased…
OCBC now expects a 25bp Fed hike at the September FOMC to a 3.75-4.00% target range, after US headline CPI held at 3.4% YoY with core easing to 2.4% and gasoline contributing 0.14pp. The ECB delivered its second 2026 hike, lifting the deposit rate to 2.50%.…
Westpac reports the DXY eased from 99.96 to 99.1 over the past month, with the yen cross the dominant driver, as USD/JPY broke through 155 and tested 154. The move is contingent on the Bank of Japan delivering hikes priced through mid-2027 and on authorities…
US August core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, exceeding consensus, driving Fed fund futures to price an 88% probability of a September hike and a 2027 terminal rate of 4.53%. MUFG's rates team calls for hikes in September and December 2026. Despite higher yields,…
Westpac upgraded its June quarter New Zealand GDP forecast to +0.2% from a previous -0.1%, lifting annual growth to 2.4% as a weak year-earlier quarter drops out. Seasonal distortions may subtract around 0.3ppts, implying a healthier 0.5% underlying pace. The…
MUFG's Japan calendar previews the week of September 14-18, 2026, centered on the September 18 BoJ decision. Core CPI is forecast at +1.7% YoY, easing for the first time in four months as summer electricity and gas subsidies take effect and rice prices…
BNP Paribas expects the FOMC on September 15-16 to deliver the first Fed rate hike since May 2023, joining the ECB and BoJ in tightening. US growth runs near 2.2% y/y, unemployment is falling, core CPI at 0.29% m/m exceeds the bank's 0.2% trigger, and energy…
Westpac reinstates a November RBA rate hike to 4.6% as the base case, citing firmer growth and persistent inflation. GDP trough upgraded to 1.5%yr in 2026. Three 25bp cuts from August 2027 still expected, leaving the whole cash rate path 25bps higher. NZ Q2…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Contributors Juan Manuel Herrera, Director +52.55.2299.6675 (Mexico) juanmanuel.herrera@scotiabank.com THIS WEEK ’S CONTRIBUTORS: Rodolfo Mitchell, Director of Economic and Sectoral Analysis +52.55.3977.4556 (Mexico)…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707…
The ECB delivered a second 25bp rate hike and Intesa Sanpaolo expects a pause until at least December, given its below-ECB inflation projections and limited second-round effects, though risks are one-sided to the upside. Attention now shifts to next week's…
Scotiabank's daily note argues that the August US CPI release could determine whether the FOMC hikes in September, with Scotia's house estimate for core CPI at 0.3% m/m versus consensus of 0.2%. The desk interprets the recent oil-driven price pressure as a…