'Australia and NZ Weekly'
中文标题
西太平洋银行 / 西太平洋银行研究平台
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Westpac reinstates a November RBA rate hike to 4.6% as the base case, citing firmer growth and persistent inflation. GDP trough upgraded to 1.5%yr in 2026. Three 25bp cuts from August 2027 still expected, leaving the whole cash rate path 25bps higher. NZ Q2 GDP forecast upgraded to +0.2% q/q. US PPI accelerated to 5.4%yr, oil surge and strong payrolls have markets debating a fourth FOMC hike.
- Institution
- Westpac / Westpac IQ
- Published
- 09/13/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation
- Time horizon
- September 2026 · near-term · 2026 · 2027 · August 2027 · 2028
Key arguments
- RBA November hike to 4.6% reinstated as base case after data and revised forecasts.
- Australian GDP trough upgraded to 1.5%yr in 2026 from 1.0%yr prior to June National Accounts.
- Three 25bp RBA cuts still expected from August 2027, leaving the whole path 25bps higher.
- NZ Q2 GDP forecast lifted to +0.2% q/q from -0.1%, annual rate 2.4% on weak base.
Key numbers
- RBA cash rate Dec 2026
- 4.6%
- RBA cash rate Dec 2027
- 4.1%
- RBA cash rate Dec 2028
- 3.85%
- Australia GDP growth 2026
- 1.5%yr
- NZ Q2 GDP q/q
- +0.2%
Main risks
- Inflation could undershoot the RBA's 2-3% target in late 2028 or 2029.
- Market pricing for a September RBA hike may be premature as the Board likely awaits full Q3 CPI.
- US PPI at 5.4%yr and oil surge raise global inflation risks; FOMC may hike a fourth time.
Corresponding source evidence
1WESTPAC ECONOMICS AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND WEEKLY Week beginning 14 September 2026 In this week’s edition: Economic Insight: Forecast update: firmer growth, higher cash rate.
· September 2026National accounts and internal data have pointed to stronger household incomes in Q2 and onwards, which means spending will be more resilient over the near term even with sentiment stuck at historically weak levels.
· near-termAn unprecedented pipeline of investment in data centres and associated renewable electricity generation and distribution is expected to drive business investment and so GDP growth – but also limit the pace of disinflation.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Westpac / Westpac IQ on 09/13/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction