Japan Economic Calendar【 Fixed Income Commentary 】

Key arguments

• Core CPI inflation is expected to ease for the first time in four months as summer electricity and gas subsidies take effect, with rice prices also declining.
• Crude oil price pass-through is expected to persist in other CPI components even as headline core inflation slows.
• The August trade deficit is seen widening substantially from a year earlier on recovering crude import volumes, higher oil prices and stronger AI-related demand.
• Machinery orders are seen rebounding, but automotive orders likely declined and general-purpose and production machinery probably fell back after the prior month's surge.

Corresponding source evidence

1. Shuji Tonouchi Senior Economist Investment Research Division Our Forecasts / Past Results Market Consensus Comments 9/14 (Mon) 13:30 9/15 10:30 (Tue) 13:30 Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity Jul est. MoM +0.4% +0.3% Jun " -0.2% May " +0.8% 9/16 8:50 Machinery orders Jul est. MoM +2.9% -5.1% (Wed) (private sector excl.
2. volatile orders) Jun " +9.7% May " -12.4% 8:50 Trade statistics Aug est. Balance -JPY1,052.9bn -JPY1,052.2bn Jul " -JPY638.3bn Aug '25 " -JPY294.1bn 10:10 10:20 16:15 17:00 9/17 8:50 (Thu) 10:20 14:00 9/18 8:30 CPI Aug est. YoY +1.7% +1.8% (Fri) Nationwide, excl.
3. fresh foods Jul " +1.9% and energy (core-core CPI) Jun " +1.7% 9:00 15:30 Date/Time (JST) Indicator/Event Indices of Industrial Production (Jul, final) 20yr JGB auction (planned issuance: 700 billion yen); announcement of results, 12:35 Wholesale and retail trade and real estate likely increased, while consumer and leisure-related activity likely rebounded as the previous month's weather-related drag unwound.