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President Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has revived supply-disruption fears, pushing Brent above USD 107 while global bond yields hit fresh cycle highs. Gold broke below USD 4,230 support and silver tumbled over 4% as…
OCBC revises its RBA call to a 25bp hike at the September 2026 meeting, lifting the cash rate to 4.60% from 4.35%, citing resilient labour demand (employment +39,500; hours worked +13.7mn) and high participation (67.1%). A single 25bp cut is now expected in…
MUFG argues the macro backdrop remains supportive of a stronger US dollar, with the dollar index near year-to-date highs and next resistance at the 24 June high of 101.80. Oil near USD110/bbl on stalled US-Iran talks keeps upward pressure on US yields;…
Natixis argues the November 2026 US-China summit left China with the upper hand, with the trade truce and China's rare-earth export controls deferred only to Jan. 10 instead of a year. As Xi landed, the 10-year Treasury yield rose about 16bp above 5.1%, the…
ING examines how US Treasury Secretary Bessent could lower the 10yr yield. If the Treasury cancels 10yr, 20yr and 30yr auctions, adds buybacks, and the 10yr SOFR rate falls 50bp to 4.25%, the 10yr Treasury yield could drop 100bp from 5.25% to 4.25%, touching…
Oil advanced as prospects for a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded, with Brent around USD 106/b and WTI above USD 93/b after Trump rejected Iran's conditions. Gold fell as much as 1.8% to below USD 4,206/oz on elevated energy-driven inflation and…
MUFG reviews September central bank week: the ECB and Fed hiked 25bp, the BoE held, and the BoJ hiked 25bp in a 7-2 vote. From 9 to 25 September, US and European curves flattened while Japan's steepened slightly. A split BoJ vote and reflation-linked…
Westpac expects the RBA to hike the cash rate 25bp to 4.60% at its September meeting, with a split vote likely amid disagreement over trend supply capacity. August CPI is forecast at 0.4%mth with upside risk, trimmed mean at 0.2%mth. Employment rose 39.5k but…
Natixis expects one more Fed hike in December and an elevated U.S. Treasury curve, keeping the Mexican peso under pressure. Banxico held its policy rate at 6.50% unanimously in September, stating it will not react mechanically to U.S. monetary policy but will…
Oil fell as US and Iranian negotiators explored a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent near USD 105/b and WTI below USD 93/b. Iran reportedly proposed a seven-day reopening if conditions are met, though prior diplomacy failed. Supply risks…
The dollar starts next week dominant, near two-month highs, supported by a hawkish Fed and Treasury yields at multi-decade peaks; markets price an 83% chance of a further October hike. EUR/USD sits near 1.14 after a 300-pip monthly slide, GBP/USD near 1.32,…
USD strength has slowed and looks stretched near-term. Thursday's long-end Treasury yield rise failed to lift the dollar as it had before, while the short end stalled after Wednesday's PMI-driven jump, implying the market is wary of pricing more Fed…
Saxo Bank's quick take notes Brent trading near USD 105.4 after a USD 10 weekly range, as talk of a Qatar-mediated phased Strait of Hormuz deal with Iran offsets Houthi missile attacks on Saudi cities. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.50%, its highest…
A global bond sell-off has pushed back-end yields higher, triggering risk-off flows that help the dollar consolidate recent gains. Oil remains bid after a failed UN summit and scepticism over US-Iran talks, keeping upside risks for rates. ING sees Brent…
Trump and Xi met in Washington on 24 September 2026 and extended the US–China trade truce by two months to 10 January 2027, lowering near-term escalation risk. No detailed tariff cuts or firm commitments on rare earths and advanced chips emerged. Soybean…
MUFG warns that a tougher external backdrop—higher US Treasury yields and Brent above $100/bbl—leaves Asia FX with a narrow path. The next US payrolls report is the key catalyst; consensus expects 100k jobs and unemployment at 4.1%. MUFG keeps a bias for…
MUFG flags contagion risk after the 2-year UST yield jumped 72bp in 21 days, the largest such move since March 2023. Forced selling by fast money could trigger liquidation of profitable AI equity and FX carry positions. The dollar has modestly retraced as…
Australia's August employment rose 39.5k but a 0.2ppt participation rebound lifted unemployment to 4.6%, keeping gradual labour-market easing intact. Westpac sees RBA supply assumptions as too weak. The BoJ hiked 25bp to 1.25% and may reach 1.5% by mid-2027.…
Markets were subdued as oil and bond yields rose. Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Red Sea oil facilities pushed Brent to $107/bbl and WTI to $94.72, outweighing hints of a US-Iran phased deal. The US-China trade truce was extended to January 2027 during Xi's…
Banxico left its policy rate at 6.50% for a third straight meeting, unanimously, as expected. It kept its call that inflation converges to the 3.0% target in Q4-2027, cutting short-term headline forecasts but raising core. The board stressed that policy…