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Canada's Q2 2026 GDP grew 3.3% annualized, the fastest in the G7, with strong domestic demand and investment. The Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut rates given robust interest-sensitive sectors. Momentum persists into Q3, though inventory swings and trade…
Scotiabank Economics expects the Bank of Canada to hold rates at 2.25% this week but sees hikes starting in December, with two more next year, citing stronger growth and inflation risks. The US August nonfarm payrolls are forecast at +30k, and the report…
Markets are awaiting Fed Chair Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, with uncertainty over whether he will provide near-term guidance or focus on broader themes. Canada's Q2 GDP is expected to show strong growth, potentially the fastest in the G7. Eurozone…
ING expects the RBNZ to hike its OCR by 25bp to 2.75% on 2 September, in line with market consensus, while retaining a hawkish bias. However, ING sees dovish risks from lower inflation projections, a potentially less hawkish message than markets price, and a…
ING Think analyzes Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech as net hawkish despite his stated avoidance of forward guidance. The market reaction flattened the yield curve, with the 2-year yield rising to 4.3% and hike odds for September jumping to 54%. ING remains…
OCBC Research's daily credit snapshot highlights a strong US equity rally led by technology shares, with Nvidia results boosting AI sentiment. Oil prices rose on geopolitical tensions with Iran, and US jobless claims fell. Credit spreads tightened across US…
The calendar from Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department lists key macroeconomic releases and central bank events for the week of August 31 to September 4, 2026. It highlights advanced economies' inflation prints, PMIs, and the US labor market data, with a…
The Eurozone ESI improved to 98.4 in August, the highest since January, with broad sector gains, signalling resilience despite fuel and gas risks, supporting an ECB rate hike in September that may be the last. GDP is seen growing ~0.3% q/q in H2 2026 and just…
Saxo Bank reports that the commodity rally broadened in August 2026, with precious metals and agriculture outperforming energy. The BCOM TR index is on track for its best month on record, up ~31% YTD. Precious metals rose ~15% on fiscal sustainability…
Intesa Sanpaolo expects the dollar to consolidate in the near term but sees a structurally weaker dollar over the medium term, with the yen having the best appreciation potential among major currencies if BoJ normalization continues and yield differentials…
Westpac's weekly analysis highlights an upside surprise in Australian July CPI, prompting an assessment of RBA policy risks, while solid household spending and mixed investment data precede Q2 GDP. Offshore, US consumer resilience contrasts with weak housing…
“Here is a quick overview of what I'll cover in my remarks this morning. You can call it an outline…you can call it a trail map…just don't call it forward guidance.” – Warsh at 2026 Jackson Hole Symposium Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech…
Commonwealth Bank economists revised their RBA cash rate forecast, now expecting a 0.25 percentage point hike in November 2026 to 4.60%, citing a broad-based July CPI upside surprise and persistent underlying inflation, despite slowing growth and a soft…
SEB's Nordic Outlook highlights resilient global growth with upward revisions, contained oil price effects but strained distillate markets, central banks diverging (Fed on hold, ECB hiking), improved Swedish growth forecasts with a Riksbank hike expected in…
ING maintains its call for no Fed hikes this year despite mixed US data and hawkish market pricing, viewing the September FOMC as a conundrum. The dollar may find support ahead of Warsh's speech, while CAD faces further downside and AUD's gains are likely…
OCBC's Daily Treasury Outlook notes that US July CPI/PCE data came in hotter than expected, reviving rate-hike speculation and pushing Treasury yields higher. Nvidia's strong FY2028 revenue guidance supports the tech/AI upcycle in Asia. Geopolitical…
Standard Chartered argues that structural bond market pressures—rising term premia from fiscal deficits, populism, and Fed opacity—are not being fully expressed in yields due to Treasury buybacks and financial repression. The adjustment is instead happening…
Invesco's Matt Brill discusses the investment grade credit market, highlighting strong corporate balance sheets, attractive all-in yields, and the impact of hyperscaler AI spending. He argues that credit markets remain diversified relative to equities, with…
RBC Economics maintains its base case for Canada's near-term growth despite new U.S. tariffs, but sees risks tilted to the downside due to potential trade escalation. Tariffs affect a small share of the economy, and fiscal support helps. The Bank of Canada is…
UBS CIO notes that long-end Treasury yields are retreating from recent peaks due to Treasury buybacks and easing oil supply concerns, but structural forces—Fed uncertainty, AI-driven corporate debt issuance, and fiscal pressures—may keep long-term borrowing…