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MUFG's Japan calendar previews the week of September 14-18, 2026, centered on the September 18 BoJ decision. Core CPI is forecast at +1.7% YoY, easing for the first time in four months as summer electricity and gas subsidies take effect and rice prices…
The ECB delivered a second 25bp rate hike and Intesa Sanpaolo expects a pause until at least December, given its below-ECB inflation projections and limited second-round effects, though risks are one-sided to the upside. Attention now shifts to next week's…
Scotiabank's daily note argues that the August US CPI release could determine whether the FOMC hikes in September, with Scotia's house estimate for core CPI at 0.3% m/m versus consensus of 0.2%. The desk interprets the recent oil-driven price pressure as a…
Natixis argues that a hotter-than-expected August CPI report has cemented a 25bp Fed hike at the September meeting, with headline CPI at 0.4% m/m (3.4% y/y) and core at 0.29% m/m (2.4% y/y), though the firm remains optimistic that inflation will continue to…
US August CPI matched consensus at 0.4% MoM/3.4% YoY, but core inflation rose 0.3% MoM (0.290% to three decimals) versus 0.2% expected, well above the 0.17% monthly pace needed to steer annual inflation toward the Fed's 2% target. With Chair Kevin Warsh…
The options market underpriced the week almost everywhere: by the final session the Nasdaq 100 fund had used 91% of its expected band, gold 99% and the bitcoin fund 97%, while the S&P 500 spent 161% and closed below its lower bound. Premium was bid for a…
ING expects today's US August CPI to be sufficient to lock in a September Fed hike, with core at 0.2% MoM and headline at 0.4% MoM, and markets already pricing 18bp for next week's FOMC. A re-established positive correlation between the dollar and back-end…
Brent crude has surged above USD 107/b and WTI trades near USD 102/b as Houthi advances toward the Bab al-Mandeb Strait compound existing threats to Saudi and wider Gulf exports, with Riyadh's August output falling 1.9mb/d to 6.24mb/d, the lowest since 1990.…
Oil's spike above USD 100 following escalating Middle East supply disruptions and a Saudi production slump to 6.23 million b/d pushed global bond yields to multi-decade highs, with the 10-year US Treasury approaching 5% and the 2-year at a cycle high above…
Energy prices, not the ECB's widely anticipated hike, are driving rates markets. With Brent above US$100/bbl, the EUR front-end fully discounts three more ECB hikes to a 3.25% deposit rate by mid-2027, and the 10-year Bund yield has topped 3.5% for the first…
Busier Canadian data releases in the coming week will be led by August’s inflation report on Monday, when we expect headline Consumer Price Index growth to hold at 3% year-over-year. Energy price growth is still elevated, but little changed from July.…
US producer inflation accelerated to 5.4% YoY in August and energy prices jumped, with Brent up over 6% near USD108 on Strait of Hormuz tensions. Markets price a roughly 70% probability of a 25bp Fed hike at the 15-16 September meeting. The ECB raised its…
MUFG's FX Daily Snapshot argues the September 11 US CPI report is pivotal for Fed hike expectations and the dollar. Stronger PPI has lifted implied hikes to 18bp ahead of the FOMC, up from 13bp. An in-line or stronger 0.2% m/m CPI reading would sustain hike…
MUFG flags that Asia FX and rates resilience to higher US Treasury yields may not persist near-term, since rising yields now reflect tighter policy expectations and higher risk premia, with Brent at $109/bbl and US 10-year yields a whisker from 5%. The desk…
Article | 10 September 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Article | 10 September 2026 FX FX Daily: The hawkish bar is set high for the ECB As the ECB delivers its well-telegraphed 25bp hike, we doubt it will signal enough…
• Macro: US-Iran escalation drove supply-risk fears while weak ADP payrolls and a disappointing Treasury buyback lifted yields. • Equities: US and European equities fell as $100 oil revived inflation fears, while Asia extended the risk-off move. • Volatility:…
1 10 September 2026 Middle East Daily 10 September 2026 COMMODITIES / ENERGY Oil holds above USD 100/b as Iran signals prolonged escalation. Oil held near recent highs, with brent around USD 101/b, while WTI traded above USD 96/b. Prices were supported…
Article | 10 September 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Article | 10 September 2026 RATES SPARK Rates Spark: Oil back above $100 We think the ECB will hike rates, but the path thereafter remains open. Oil breaching $100 and record…
• Federal Reserve tightening has historically brought near-term volatility, but equities tended to often recover after early drawdowns. • The pace matters: slow hiking cycles have historically produced milder market declines and stronger economic outcomes…
J.P. Morgan Global Research brings you the latest updates and analysis of President Trump’s tariff proposals and their economic impact. Since taking office, President Trump has enacted a growing list of tariffs on specific countries and commodities — a move…