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A weak US September payrolls print of 29k cooled October Fed hike odds to 20%, lifting the Nasdaq 100 to a record close. The euro fell to a new cycle low of 1.1161 against the dollar, pressured by French fiscal turmoil and widening OAT-Bund spreads, which…
Saudi Aramco's deep OSP cut to Asia and a fresh 100m bbl G7 strategic reserve release push December Brent down 0.7% to USD 101.56/b and WTI to about USD 90/b. Gold opens at USD 4,133/oz, down 0.2% after a 3.4% weekly loss, with sub-20% odds priced for a Fed…
US headline PCE inflation held at 3.4% YoY and core at 3.0% in August, still above the Fed's 2% goal, with energy rebounding 2.3% MoM and goods inflation rising to 3.6% from 3.3%. Pay growth slowed to 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY, signaling labor slack. Australia's…
September brought a violent global bond repricing, with the US 10-year yield rising over 50bp to 5.28% and the 30-year to 5.63%, on strong US growth, an oil supply shock and a hawkish Fed hike to 4%. Equities held up at the index level (S&P 500 -0.35%, Nasdaq…
September US nonfarm payrolls rose just 29k versus 90k consensus, with unemployment at 4.2% and wage growth at 0.1% m/m, weakening the case for an October Fed hike. Yet the 10-year Treasury yield rebounded intraday from 5.15% to about 5.29% and the 2-year…
USD/JPY opened September at 159.77 and traded both sides of 157 as the BOJ hiked to 1.25% and the Fed raised 25bp. Washington now treats yen undervaluation as a leader-level issue, and a move above 160 would likely trigger stronger warnings and possible…
The global FX market is being reshaped by the worst bond sell-off in decades. The 10-year UST yield reached 5.34%, a 24-year high, after its sharpest quarterly rise in 32 years. This lifted the dollar, with EUR/USD at 1.1259 after touching 1.1215, its lowest…
Natixis argues China has no incentive to join any coordinated AI slowdown. US systems' share of OpenRouter tokens fell from about 70% a year ago to near 30%, so a pause would freeze a hierarchy Beijing rejects. China's cheaper power and easier grid…
US payrolls loom with consensus near 90,000 after 162,000 in August. Oil jumped as the US deploys a third carrier group and 10,000 troops to the Middle East, reviving US-Iran conflict fears. The Germany-France 10-year yield spread widened to a 14-year high of…
Brent crude jumped over 4% to close at USD 102.31/b on news of additional US troop deployments to the Middle East, China's suspension of refined fuel exports, and another tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz. Gold rose about USD 20 to USD 4,177.66/oz as…
The RBI's October 7 decision is finely balanced, with consensus for a 25bp hike to 5.50% but split expectations; MUFG forecasts 50bp of hikes this cycle and sees a risk of 75bp given strong growth, abundant liquidity, firming credit, supportive fiscal policy,…
US Treasuries fell for a seventh straight session, with the 10-year yield hitting 5.3% and the 30-year at a 24-year high, driven by Middle East conflict, robust US activity, AI-driven debt issuance and fiscal deficits. UBS CIO deems market pricing of nearly…
ING estimates AI explains about 20% of the rise in long-dated US rates: 70% of that via productivity, 25% via issuance, 5% via spending. Higher long-end issuance pressure comes mainly from TMT corporates, with a $75bn swing in long-dated corporate versus…
US 2Q GDP was revised up to 2.2% q/q saar and September ADP payrolls rose by 90,000, while August headline PCE slowed to 3.4% y/y and core PCE held at 3.0%. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.2849% and the DXY was broadly unchanged. Equities closed mixed.…
EURUSD hit new one-year lows, driven mainly by broad USD strength, while the euro has only begun to reflect Eurozone sovereign stress. The France-Germany 10-year yield spread widened above 130bp from roughly 85bp in early September. French 10-year yields…
US August core PCE was softer than expected (0.2% MoM, 3.0% YoY) on lower revisions, annualizing at 2.0%, though German September inflation hit a two-year high of 3.3%. US 2-10 yield curve steepened to 40bp as 10-year yields touched post-GFC highs above…
Brent held near USD 98/b and WTI around USD 90/b as traders questioned whether the Middle East supply recovery can be sustained. Regional crude flows have returned close to pre-war levels, with roughly 23mb/d leaving the Middle East over the past week through…
Saxo's Q4 outlook sees three tests for equity resilience: another energy supply shock, post-GFC high sovereign yields with US 10-year near 5%, and AI's internal debate over slowing frontier advancement. The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75-4.00% in September.…
MUFG's October 2026 FX outlook sees a US dollar-led world: DXY closed September up 2.0% after the Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00%, with 10-year UST yields up 53bps. Six G10 central banks hiked, and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz closure keeps energy prices elevated.…
MUFG forecasts Asian currencies to post a modest aggregate appreciation in Q4 2026, with performance highly differentiated across pairs. The quarterly outlook sees continued US dollar and energy headwinds, while Asian growth remains resilient, led by…