Middle East Daily

Key arguments

• Recovering Gulf crude flows should limit upward pressure on oil prices, but refined-product shortages, uncertain Hormuz access and regional security risks are likely to keep physical markets tight and volatility elevated.
• Saudi Arabia widened its 2026 deficit forecast to 4.9% of GDP from 3.3% and sharply revised 2026 real GDP to a 3.6% contraction from 4.6% growth, while expenditure rises to about SAR 1.4tn (USD 380bn).
• Gold's softer-inflation support is offset by elevated long-dated Treasury yields and lingering Fed tightening risk, with Friday's US payrolls the next major catalyst.
• Morocco's Q2 2026 growth slowed to 4.0% y/y from 5.8% as non-agricultural growth fell to 1.5% and mining and extractive activity dropped 28.6%.

Corresponding source evidence

1. 1 01 October 2026 Middle East Daily 01 October 2026 COMMODITIES / ENERGY Oil holds near USD 98/b as supply recovery remains uncertain. · October 2026
2. Oil steadied with Brent near USD 98/b and WTI around USD 90/b as traders assessed whether the recovery in Middle East supply can be sustained.
3. Recovering Gulf crude flows should limit upward pressure on oil prices, but persistent fuel shortages, uncertain Hormuz access and regional security risks are likely to keep physical markets tight and volatility elevated.