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MUFG notes the euro is stabilising after sliding from 1.1600 to 1.1200 on higher global yields, French fiscal concerns before April/May presidential elections and a terms-of-trade hit from refined energy prices. German GDP forecasts were revised up to 1.3%…
Spain called a snap general election for 29 November, adding political uncertainty to a eurozone already focused on France's fiscal troubles. Yet Spain keeps outperforming: GDP has averaged about 3.0% y/y since 2024 versus 1.2% for the euro area, unemployment…
US Treasuries calmed with solid 10yr and 30yr auctions, pulling the 10yr yield below 5.25% and putting the sell-off on pause rather than ending it. Swap spreads have tightened since the buyback announcement, contrasting with France. Italian 10yr spread over…
The ECB's September minutes confirm a unanimous Governing Council view that a worsening inflation outlook and economic resilience justified a 25bp hike to a 2.50% deposit rate, though the tone was less hawkish than President Lagarde's press conference. Some…
The dollar index holds near year-to-date highs as US rate markets cut expected October Fed hikes to about 5bps from 10bps, with FOMC minutes showing no urgency; gains are driven more by euro-area fiscal and political risk than domestic data, as French-German…
Elevated global rates volatility, driven partly by the US 10-year Treasury yield passing 5%, is keeping eurozone government bond spreads wide despite European political efforts. A return to the low-volatility conditions that previously supported carry trades…
The September FOMC minutes showed a unanimous 25bp hike but a split over whether supply or demand drives inflation; most saw another hike before year-end as likely, yet saw little urgency for October. US 10-year yields spiked intraday above 5.36%, a 24-year…
Fed minutes leaned hawkish, with most officials expecting another hike by year-end, though the probability of an October move stayed low and a 25bp December hike was largely priced. Long-dated Treasuries sold off, with 10Y and 30Y yields touching their…
Bonds are under pressure from higher oil prices on escalating Strait of Hormuz attacks, renewed EGB fractures, and a hawkish global central bank tone (RBI hike, possible BCRP move). Treasury and Canadian yields rose in bear steepeners, with long-end yields up…
Natixis argues that the exceptional summer 2026 heatwaves acted as a persistent but temporary cost-push shock to euro area prices, not growth. Local projections on a 1995-2025 panel show energy prices rising 0.81pp on impact and food prices 0.46pp, with food…
ABN AMRO maintains its end-2026 EUR/USD forecast at 1.15, arguing that although more negative German-US yield spreads and French fiscal-political uncertainty continue to weigh on the euro, markets are pricing in too many Fed and ECB rate hikes. If…
France's National Rally plans €136bn in annual savings and aims for sub-50% GDP public spending by 2032. While acknowledging consolidation, ING sees major delivery risks: dubious savings bases (VAT gap, motorway revenue, EU contribution), €69.3bn of tax cuts…
Nomura forecasts fewer rate hikes than markets price, viewing this as a resumption of hiking cycles with policy rates near or above neutral and inflation largely cost-push. It expects a Fed hike in December then an extended hold, two ECB hikes to a 3.00% depo…
The oil market is caught between improving Persian Gulf supply and continued attacks on ships, with ICE Brent dipping toward $97/bbl before settling above $100/bbl. Middle distillates have weakened as the ICE gasoil crack fell to about $73/bbl from over…
MUFG flags renewed yen underperformance, with USD/JPY at 158.51, sitting on its 200-day moving average. A break would open further gains toward 160 and possible intervention speculation. The Fed has three 25bp hikes priced through mid-2027, and an October…
MUFG attributes the EUR sell-off to higher US yields and mounting euro-area fiscal and political risk, especially France, with French bond stress reviving fragmentation concerns and high foreign ownership of OATs amplifying outflows. EUR/USD has broken below…
Natixis expects Peru's central bank (BCRP) to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50%, with two more 25bp hikes pencilled in for 2026, putting the real rate back inside the neutral range. Headline inflation has exceeded 4.0% since June, reaching 4.55% y/y in…
US tariffs on European goods had a limited macro impact in 2025, with GDP effects between -0.1 and +0.15 percentage points, as exports to the US are only about 3% of EU GDP and roughly 90% of the tariff burden fell on American buyers. However, Chinese…
Global government bond yields reached about 4%, the highest since 2007, as the Fed, ECB and BoJ tightened with hawkish tones. Brent spiked to $105 then eased to around $90, with a path toward $80 by early 2027 expected. Equities stayed resilient on AI…
Euro corporate primary markets reopened in September, with supply rising to €56bn from €25bn in August and YTD issuance at €389bn, about 11% ahead of last year and above the 2020 YTD high. TMT led at €15bn; corporate hybrids set a record. Bank bond supply…