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TD Economics notes a complicated outlook for Canada and nervous bond markets in the US, with the BoC holding at 2.25% but signaling hawkish risks from oil, while the Fed faces a close call on September rates amid strong data and rising yields.
Danske Bank raises its 2026 US GDP forecast to 2.1% and keeps 2027 at 1.8%, while trimming inflation forecasts. It expects two Fed rate hikes in December and March, supporting a stronger USD and EUR/USD moving lower to 1.12 over 12 months.
SMBC expects core PCE inflation to remain elevated near 3.3% YoY in July, and notes the Fed's preferred inflation metrics are unlikely to fully ease policy concerns given sticky disinflation. The bank also details a causal chain where real income leads…
SMBC expects the Fed to hike rates in September and December 2026, reversing all 2025 cuts by spring 2027, amid above-target PCE inflation and solid growth. They foresee a flatter yield curve due to a hawkish Fed and Treasury buybacks. AI capex is booming but…
Danske Bank's September 2026 Nordic Outlook highlights a resilient global economy despite higher energy prices from the Iran war, with AI-related investments providing a counterbalance. The euro area shows stronger-than-expected growth, prompting upward…
MUFG's JPY Monthly report for September 2026 highlights the impact of coordinated Japan-US FX intervention (JPY15.4tn since late July) in containing yen weakness, with markets now expecting a BOJ rate hike in September (over 90% priced in) partly due to US…
PIMCO economist Tiffany Wilding analyzes the inflation versus wage puzzle, arguing that current above-target inflation is driven by profit margins rather than labor costs. She outlines three scenarios for resolving the price/labor-cost gap, favoring the…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com SCOTIABANK FORECAST September 9, 2026 Contributors Olivier Gervais Director, Modelling and…
Invesco's Global Head of Research, Benjamin Jones, analyzes the Federal Reserve's stance after Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, expecting the Fed to remain on hold for the rest of the year. He anticipates reduced forward guidance to widen outcome…
SMBC's US Rates Strategy Weekly for August 28, 2026, discusses tariff revenue replacement, the impact of tariffs on inflation, September seasonals for Treasuries, and economic forecasts. The report expects tariff effects on inflation to ebb by year-end,…
OCBC Daily Treasury Outlook highlights a tech-led rally in US equities boosted by Nvidia's strong guidance, while oil prices rose on geopolitical tensions with Iran. Central bank speakers at Jackson Hole maintained a cautious inflation stance. BSP hiked rates…
Markets are awaiting Fed Chair Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, with uncertainty over whether he will provide near-term guidance or focus on broader themes. Canada's Q2 GDP is expected to show strong growth, potentially the fastest in the G7. Eurozone…
SMBC Nikko highlights that the expiration of pandemic-era stimulus funding (ESSER and SLFRF) will reduce public sector employment over the next year, with an estimated 214k total job losses, and provides forecasts for August NFP, private NFP, and unemployment.
Invesco's Matt Brill discusses the investment grade credit market, highlighting strong corporate balance sheets, attractive all-in yields, and the impact of hyperscaler AI spending. He argues that credit markets remain diversified relative to equities, with…
A member of MUFG, a global financial group Central Bank View 2026 Jackson Hole Fed Preview: A pitstop on the path to no hikes… MUFG Securities, Inc & MUFG Bank, Ltd. August 27, 2026 US Desk Strategy | Global Markets Americas Central…
Invesco argues that despite the US national debt surpassing $40 trillion, market concerns are overblown when viewed in context of rising household wealth and resilient earnings. Higher Treasury yields and oil prices are seen as manageable near-term issues,…
Scotiabank Economics sees a possible US-Canada trade deal lowering effective tariffs, which could lift 2027 Canadian growth and close the output gap, while the Fed's Jackson Hole speech, payroll revisions, and inflation data will guide markets. Canadian bank…
Invesco argues that the current AI-driven market rally is supported by real demand for computing power, unlike past speculative booms. Strong earnings growth without corresponding hiring suggests productivity gains are materializing. The firm maintains a…
SMBC's US Rates Strategy Weekly discusses the Treasury's decision to double long-end buybacks, its implications for term yields, and the conditions under which yields might decline. The report suggests that buybacks alone are unlikely to durably lower…
PIMCO's Macro Signposts report argues that the U.S. labor market is structurally constrained by demographics, AI, and immigration policy, leading to a compositional drag on measured wage growth despite declining unemployment. The report suggests that wage…