Monthly Update Chartbook Sep2026

中文标题

月度更新图表册 9月2026

SMBC09/03/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

SMBC expects the Fed to hike rates in September and December 2026, reversing all 2025 cuts by spring 2027, amid above-target PCE inflation and solid growth. They foresee a flatter yield curve due to a hawkish Fed and Treasury buybacks. AI capex is booming but has modest GDP impact, while hyperscalers dominate corporate debt issuance. Tariffs are not expected to boost inflation significantly.

Institution: SMBC
Published: 09/03/2026
Research topic: Inflation · AI Investment · Tech Sector
Time horizon: medium-term · long-term

Inflation · CPI US Treasuries · US10Y Federal Reserve Policy · FED

Key arguments

Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% PCE target, with over half of the PCE basket rising by more than 3% in the past year.
The economy is at full employment with subdued wage growth and solid consumer spending.
The Fed is expected to hike rates in September and December 2026 due to sticky core inflation and solid growth.
A hawkish Fed and Treasury buybacks favor a flatter yield curve.
AI capital expenditures are large but have a modest GDP impact; hyperscalers dominate corporate debt issuance.

Key numbers

Fed rate hike expectation by end-2026: 37bp
PCE inflation forecast 2026: 3.2% y/y
GDP growth forecast 2026-2027: 2.2% Q4/Q4
Hyperscaler capex 2026 forecast: $770bn
Hyperscaler capex 2027 potential: $1.3trn
Intraday repo potential size: $1trn

Main risks

Potential for higher inflation expectations if the Fed delays rate hikes.
Global supply chain pressures could re-emerge due to tensions in the Straits of Hormuz.
Tariff pass-through could have lingering effects on consumer prices.
AI investment could overheat the economy or lead to asset bubbles.
A less communicative Fed may increase interest rate volatility.

Corresponding source evidence

We look for PCE and core PCE to both increase 3.2% y/y in 2026 · medium-term
And 1.5% and 2.2%, respectively in 2027 · long-term
And 1.5% and 2.2%, respectively in 2027 · long-term

Conditions / invalidation

Recent earnings reports suggest