US Rates Weekly 20260828
中文标题
美国利率周报 20260828
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
SMBC's US Rates Strategy Weekly for August 28, 2026, discusses tariff revenue replacement, the impact of tariffs on inflation, September seasonals for Treasuries, and economic forecasts. The report expects tariff effects on inflation to ebb by year-end, recommends buying 10-year Treasuries on dips, and provides forecasts for ISM and nonfarm payrolls.
- Institution
- SMBC
- Published
- 08/28/2026
- Research topic
- Tariffs · US Rates · Inflation
- Time horizon
- Next year · By year-end · Early September · August
Key arguments
- Tariff revenue replacement: Section 301 expansion should recover lost revenue, keeping effective tariff rate near 7%.
- Tariff inflation effects expected to ebb by year-end as pass-through completes.
- September seasonals bearish for Treasuries, but policy support may offer buying opportunities.
- ISM manufacturing expected to rise to 56.1 in August; services to 54.7.
- Nonfarm payrolls forecast at +57k headline and +68k private; unemployment steady at 4.1%.
Key numbers
- Tariff revenues collected since March 1
- $150bn
- IEEPA refunds paid out
- $120bn
- Section 122 monthly collection
- $25bn/month
- Effective tariff rate
- 7%
- ISM manufacturing forecast (Aug)
- 56.1
- ISM services forecast (Aug)
- 54.7
- Headline NFP forecast
- 57,000
- Private NFP forecast
- 68,000
Main risks
- September corporate issuance could pressure yields higher.
- Geopolitical and oil price shocks could lead to bearish moves in Treasuries.
- Pass-through effects may linger longer than expected, keeping inflation elevated.
- Labor market weakness could intensify if government payroll declines accelerate.
Corresponding source evidence
As the expansion in Section 301 has roughly the same coverage as the Section 122 duties, we expect the average effective tariff rate to hold near 7% next year.
· Next yearWe expect tariff effects on inflation to slowly ebb by year-end.
· By year-endBuy the 10y on dips in early September, or as and when the ACM term premium is above 80bp.
· Early September
Conditions / invalidation
- If ACM term premium is above 80bp.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by SMBC on 08/28/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction