Reports are admitted only from public, source-verifiable pages. How Tlines structures a report, grouped by asset, publishing institution or topic below.
France's OAT sell-off has blown out the OAT/Bund spread more than expected, leaving EUR vulnerable to further decline. MUFG flags forced selling as the driver, and options flows show one of the most EUR-negative readings in recent periods, implying a…
Global markets in late September 2026 show a synchronized hawkish pivot: the FOMC, ECB and BoJ have all hiked rates, pushing UST 10Y to a 2026 high of 5.24%, mostly from higher real yields. OCBC adds a 25bp Fed hike in 4Q2026, one BoE hike by year-end, two…
US August core PCE was softer than expected (0.2% MoM, 3.0% YoY) on lower revisions, annualizing at 2.0%, though German September inflation hit a two-year high of 3.3%. US 2-10 yield curve steepened to 40bp as 10-year yields touched post-GFC highs above…
The US dollar extended its rally, pushing the dollar index toward June's year-to-date high of 101.80, even after August core PCE inflation slowed to 3.0% year-on-year versus 3.3% expected, with downward revisions trimming 36bps. The three-month annualized…
MUFG's October 2026 FX outlook sees a US dollar-led world: DXY closed September up 2.0% after the Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00%, with 10-year UST yields up 53bps. Six G10 central banks hiked, and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz closure keeps energy prices elevated.…
MUFG forecasts Asian currencies to post a modest aggregate appreciation in Q4 2026, with performance highly differentiated across pairs. The quarterly outlook sees continued US dollar and energy headwinds, while Asian growth remains resilient, led by…
MUFG's calendar previews Japan data from late September to early October. Industrial production is estimated up 1.1% MoM for August, retail sales up 2.1% YoY, and housing starts up 6.4% YoY, with growth slowing on weak air-conditioner demand, high prices, and…
The report argues that Middle East escalation and higher energy prices are pushing central banks to tighten further, while governments delay fiscal consolidation despite unsustainable public finances. Global growth has held up on AI investment, exports and…
Interest rates have risen across developed markets, but credit fundamentals remain resilient: strong earnings, healthy bank capital and liquidity have kept credit anchored. US high-yield revenue rose over 10% and operating profit over 14% year over year,…
Major central banks now reference broader financial conditions when setting policy. Using the Fed's FCI-G, PIMCO estimates conditions were about 50 bps too easy at end-2Q, implying a 70-bp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, a 9% equity decline, or a 4%…
Softer US data pressured yields: Conference Board confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9 and JOLTS openings dropped to 7.08m, while NY Fed's Williams saw no urgency to tighten further, cutting next-meeting hike odds to near 50%. The RBA raised its cash rate 25bp…
US data softened: Conference Board consumer confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9, its lowest in over a decade, and August JOLTS openings dropped to 7.08m from 7.34m. NY Fed's Williams saw no urgency to tighten, cutting implied odds of another hike next meeting…
UOB projects the US economy stays resilient but bifurcated into 2027, with the Fed on hold through 2026 and cuts resuming only in 2027; a September hike remains a live risk. Fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and debt above US$40tn keep long-end UST yields…
The dollar index reached 101.61, close to June's 101.80 year-to-date high, before New York Fed President Williams pushed back against an October hike, saying there is "no need for urgency." Markets pared October hike pricing to about 12bp from 18bp. Williams…
Advanced economies showed broad September strength. Eurozone composite PMI reached 53.1, its highest since April 2023, with services output prices at 56.1 spreading the energy shock. Germany's composite rose to 53.8 and Ifo hit 89.9; France returned to…
The September Fed hike temporarily closes the window for broad USD weakness, as markets shift from pricing cuts to hikes. Amundi still expects the Fed to deliver less tightening than priced, so any renewed dollar strength should be limited and weakness should…
Amid a fragmenting global order, growth is concentrated and inflationary pressures persist. Amundi expects major central banks to keep tightening, but by less than markets price. Fiscal policy is gaining importance, yet faces limited room. Summer events —…
Scotiabank's Derek Holt previews a data-heavy session that includes Canadian GDP for July and a Bank of Canada speech on repo markets and monetary policy implementation. He expects modest market moves, with US consumer confidence, JOLTS and Fed speakers also…
Japanese officials escalated verbal warnings against yen weakness, with the chief currency official citing a "very clear" message from Japan and the US and the finance minister calling yen undervaluation a problem. USD/JPY fell to an intra-day low of 156.51…
MUFG shifts its BoJ policy-rate scenario earlier: after the September 2026 hike to 1.25%, it now expects 1.50% in December 2026 (previously January 2027) and 1.75% in April 2027 (previously June 2027), with 1.75% as the terminal rate. It also revises the Fed…