Reports are admitted only from public, source-verifiable pages. How Tlines structures a report, grouped by asset, publishing institution or topic below.
The UK government's pension triple-lock reform and absence of inflationary policies reduce the tail risk of a Labour-driven inflation spiral, a positive for gilts. However, US rates and energy prices remain the dominant drivers, keeping sterling rates…
State Street reports a six-month upturn in global manufacturing, led by developed markets and AI investment. The US preliminary September manufacturing PMI hit 57.0, its highest since May 2022, while the UK composite PMI fell to a three-month low of 51.7 and…
TD Economics reports the global bond selloff intensified, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high of 5.22% on strong PMIs, hawkish Fed unity and weak auction demand. WTI fell 6% to about $94 on Saudi pipeline resumption, though refined products…
The ECB could raise rates in December unless the Gulf crisis resolves quickly, as energy costs push euro area inflation higher while consumption and confidence stay fragile. The UK and Japan are slowing but rate rises are still likely by year-end. In the US,…
Scotiabank's week-ahead preview sees September US nonfarm payrolls at 75k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, fading August's 162k as weather, local-government education and leisure hiring reverse. Canada's July GDP is tracked near +0.1% m/m with Q3 around 2%…
The US Treasury curve bear-flattened as 2s10s narrowed to 19bp from 40bp; the 2-year yield rose 38bp to 4.8% while the 30-year was unchanged at 5.29%, with both real rates and inflation expectations contributing. Intesa Sanpaolo expects gradual declines over…
Scotiabank's daily notes flag a 'funny season' for manipulated markets before the US midterms, with Trump jawboning oil lower on Iran talks despite unchanged nuclear stockpiles and war risk. Potash and diesel threats appear empty: Belarus has no surplus and a…
SMBC's US economist forecasts a sharp Q3 2026 growth spike to 5.0% annualized, followed by a Q4 slowdown to 0.7%, with core PCE at 3.1% year over year through 2026. Unemployment drifts to 4.0% by 2027. The rates strategy team expects one more 25bp hike in…
SMBC's US rates team argues the inflation-unemployment mix implies a rising rule-consistent policy rate, supporting further hikes after September's 25bp move. The CPI-minus-unemployment gap, a monthly Taylor Rule proxy watched for over 40 years, has preceded…
The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75–4.00%, with a unanimous vote and upgraded forecasts signalling more tightening. Chair Warsh called financial conditions not particularly restrictive. The Fed dropped language attributing elevated inflation to supply shocks,…
The Fed raised the fed funds target 25bp by unanimous vote; the median dot implies one more hike in 2026 to 4.00-4.25% and none in 2027. Markets were disappointed the dot plot was not more forceful. Eight members wanted another 2027 hike versus six seeing no…
UK August CPI rose to 3.1%, 25bp above the BoE's July projection, driven by energy while core (2.6%) and services (3.4%) stayed stable. With Brent near $110 and gas at multi-year highs, MUFG expects a hawkish hold at the September BoE meeting and a signal…
The Fed raised its policy rate 25bp in September, and the SEP signals another hike this year and possibly one more in 2027 if inflation does not cool quickly. Core PCE has reaccelerated above 3% y/y, while headline inflation is elevated by energy. Chair Warsh…
Wellington argues the Hormuz closure and oil spike matter less as a rate-hike trigger than as a lens on a structural shift: supply-chain fragmentation, fiscal deficits, deglobalization and AI/infrastructure capital demand are all raising the cost of capital.…
Global inflation has fallen from its 2022 peak, yet uncertainty and stubborn risks persist, notably in the U.S. Stock-bond correlations reached multi-decade highs in 2026, leaving many portfolios exposed to a shared inflation shock. Analysis of over 50 years…
Escalating Middle East conflict, including constrained flows through Hormuz and the Saudi East-West pipeline, points to higher-for-longer energy prices. ABN AMRO revises eurozone inflation to peak near 4% and return to target only by Q4 2027, with 2027…
MUFG expects the BoJ to raise its uncollateralized overnight call rate target from around 1% to around 1.25% at the September meeting, a move the market has priced with greater than 90% probability. The 10-year JGB yield is likely to remain volatile in the…
Oil gained roughly 2–3% after a Saudi pipeline shutdown and postponed Middle East talks with Iran, pressuring stocks and bonds. Equities fell across major indexes, with Nasdaq down about 1.5%. US Treasury yields were little changed after Friday's CPI-driven…
The ECB raised its main policy rate 25bp to 2.5% and revised up growth and inflation forecasts, with inflation seen peaking at 3.6% in Q4 2026; markets priced half a hike in October and more than three additional hikes by mid-2027, a hawkish read despite no…
OCBC now expects a 25bp Fed hike at the September FOMC to a 3.75-4.00% target range, after US headline CPI held at 3.4% YoY with core easing to 2.4% and gasoline contributing 0.14pp. The ECB delivered its second 2026 hike, lifting the deposit rate to 2.50%.…