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The US dollar's shallow consolidation leaves its rally intact ahead of Wednesday's September US CPI. USDJPY has risen above its 200-day moving average near 158.50, while EURUSD presses below 1.1200 on elevated German-French 10-year yield spreads at 141bp.…
ING expects EUR/USD to stay offered in a 1.10-1.15 range into year-end as French debt concerns echo the 2018 Italian episode rather than a Greek-style default. Modest fiscal consolidation should cap the OAT-Bund spread sell-off. A hawkish September Fed and…
ING argues EUR/USD stays pressured in a new 1.10-1.15 range over three to six months, as solid US growth and a hawkish Fed combine with French budget unrest; the French episode is likened to Italy's 2018 election-driven debt stress rather than Greece's 2012…
ING's October 2026 EMEA FX outlook sees the region's currencies pressured by higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, but insulated by local rate hikes and light foreign positioning outside Hungary. It retains a broadly positive medium-term view on…
Spain's PM dissolved both houses of Parliament on 5 October 2026, calling early elections for 29 November. Natixis sees a likely shift from left to right, with a PP-led coalition including Vox. Spanish fundamentals remain solid, with growth above the euro…
Geopolitical escalation in Riyadh and an unconfirmed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire barely moved FX. Markets instead focus on firm US growth, above-target inflation and a Fed 75bp hiking cycle, with upside risks to 0.2% MoM core September CPI. DXY…
MUFG reports the dollar index consolidating just above 102 ahead of Wednesday's US September CPI, with the 2-year Treasury yield down about 20bp from its 29th September peak after softer PCE and NFP data. The rate market prices roughly 5bp of Fed hikes this…
Scotiabank's Global Week Ahead frames the coming week around US inflation data, the start of Q3 earnings season and central bank communications at the IMF/IIF Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The bank argues the Bank of Canada should fade jobs data and concentrate…
TD Economics' October 9, 2026 weekly review flags the September CPI report (Oct 14) as the key event, with consensus at 3.6% y/y headline and 2.5% y/y core. Oil traded in a $88-93/bbl WTI range as markets weighed Hormuz flows, Middle East tensions and…
The global economy stays resilient despite a renewed energy shock that hits Europe harder than the US, with AI, defence and energy-transition capex driving near-trend growth. Inflation remains elevated, keeping the ECB, Fed and BoE hawkish; ABN AMRO expects…
US consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 in October from 48.1, with current conditions dropping to a record-low 44.7, dragged by high motor fuel costs, weak wage growth and job-security worries. Yet spending holds up because top-income households drive about 40-60%…
The USD sits near year-to-date highs with momentum easing. MUFG expects the Fed to hold rates this month absent a big September CPI upside surprise, noting recent USD strength increasingly reflects overseas weakness, notably euro area energy-shock and French…
September eurozone PMIs rose to 53.1, the strongest since April 2023, pointing to resilient underlying growth, though ABN AMRO doubts the momentum can be sustained. Higher bond yields, notably French, and limited second-round inflation effects mean the ECB…
ABN AMRO argues the global bond sell-off reflects higher expected real neutral rates rather than imminent crisis. Model estimates suggest roughly 90% of German and US yield moves stem from monetary policy expectations, with modest term premia. A 100bp rate…
Italy has passed a new electoral law aimed at curbing fragmentation and encouraging pre-election coalitions, which briefly tightened the 10Y BTP-Bund spread but left the move limited given implementation risk. Natixis forecasts the spread at 90bp by end-2026…
MUFG expects Asia FX to trade range-bound in the week ahead, driven by US September CPI, Treasury yields and China activity, inflation and credit data. A softer US inflation print would support high-yielding Asian currencies and help stem equity outflows,…
Scotiabank expects no change in Canadian September employment (0k) and unemployment at 6.5%, versus consensus of +10k. US University of Michigan October sentiment is forecast at 47.0, down from 48.1, with consumers bleak on the outlook yet still spending as…
Natixis's Americas note flags Brazilian election victory for Bolsonaro alongside a surprise Peru hold: BCRP kept its policy rate at 4.25% when a 25bp hike was expected, citing low supercore inflation of 1.8% y/y despite headline at 4.5%. The note also says…
Natixis expects September core CPI at 0.19% m/m and headline CPI at 0.6% m/m, both in line with consensus, reinforcing its view that underlying inflation keeps drifting lower. It sees little evidence of reacceleration: tariff and energy shocks are acyclical…
Markets price about three ECB and Fed hikes by late 2027, while ING economists expect one from each plus modest cuts in late 2027-2028. The debate should resolve by spring 2027 as energy effects fade and inflation stays calm. Markets have been right on the…