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BNP Paribas expects the FOMC on September 15-16 to deliver the first Fed rate hike since May 2023, joining the ECB and BoJ in tightening. US growth runs near 2.2% y/y, unemployment is falling, core CPI at 0.29% m/m exceeds the bank's 0.2% trigger, and energy…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707…
The ECB delivered a second 25bp rate hike and Intesa Sanpaolo expects a pause until at least December, given its below-ECB inflation projections and limited second-round effects, though risks are one-sided to the upside. Attention now shifts to next week's…
Scotiabank's daily note argues that the August US CPI release could determine whether the FOMC hikes in September, with Scotia's house estimate for core CPI at 0.3% m/m versus consensus of 0.2%. The desk interprets the recent oil-driven price pressure as a…
US August headline CPI matched expectations at 0.4% m/m, while core CPI came in warmer than consensus at 0.3% m/m (2.4% y/y). The details, combined with producer prices, imply core PCE inflation of about 0.2% m/m, extending a cooling trend. Scotiabank argues…
Scotiabank's September 2026 FX Outlook adopts a broadly bearish USD stance, arguing the DXY is in the early stages of a bearish reversal as rate differentials erode and G10 central banks turn hawkish. The Fed is forecast to hold at 3.75% through 2027, while…
• Federal Reserve tightening has historically brought near-term volatility, but equities tended to often recover after early drawdowns. • The pace matters: slow hiking cycles have historically produced milder market declines and stronger economic outcomes…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com SCOTIABANK FORECAST September 9, 2026 Contributors Olivier Gervais Director, Modelling and…
Housing Boom-Bust Revisited: Demand Shock Deepens Troy Ludtka Senior US Economist SMBC Nikko Securities (212)-224-5483 Troy.Ludtka@smbcnikko-si.com September 2026 1 House Views Home prices are likely to underperform the rate of inflation due to a dearth of…
Oil prices have remained below their April high, energy flows have recovered, and supply chains have adapted — suggesting energy concerns may be more manageable than headlines imply. A 10-year Treasury yield near 4.75% appeared less alarming alongside 6.6%…
Investment Bank Impact Series 15 The global energy race Barclays Research believes markets may be underestimating the scale of the impact of the next energy demand cycle. 2 3 Foreword Welcome to the fifteenth edition of the Impact Series from Barclays…
OCBC forecasts August headline CPI at 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, with core CPI at 0.3% MoM and 2.5% YoY. Motor fuel is expected to rise about 2.9% MoM after falling 3.0% in July, adding roughly 0.12 ppt to headline, while shelter is forecast to rise 0.35% MoM and…
OCBC's weekly macro views highlight escalating US-Iran tensions impacting oil markets, a strong US jobs report limiting USD downside, and several Asia-Pacific macro developments including Singapore's upward GDP revisions from the MAS SPF, resilient Australian…
Westpac expects the RBNZ to keep the OCR unchanged in October before hiking by 25bp in December, with the OCR peaking at 3.28% by end-2029 and reaching 4% by September 2027. Inflation remains elevated, and the NZD is seen consolidating with a year-end target…
TD Economics' September 11, 2026 weekly review describes a market backdrop dominated by a deepening global bond selloff and a renewed energy shock. WTI crude briefly breached $100/bbl for the first time in four months amid periodic U.S.-Iran tensions over the…
Scotiabank Economics maintains its June forecast with Canada's growth expected at 0.9% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, while the Bank of Canada is likely to raise rates twice late this year. The US GDP growth forecast is 2.0% for 2026 and 1.9% for 2027, with the…
Scotiabank Economics expects the upcoming week to feature escalation risks in the Canada-US tariff war, with Canada imposing retaliatory tariffs on C$28 billion of US imports, while Canada pivots toward attracting C$1 trillion in investments over five years.…
Scotiabank Economics questions the credibility of the August 2026 nonfarm payrolls report, attributing the upside surprise to an abrupt and unexplained shift in the seasonal adjustment (SA) factor. The bank notes that using prior-year SA factors would have…
SMBC's US Rates Strategy Weekly for September 4, 2026, forecasts that 10-year Treasury yields may have peaked in the near term at 4.80%-5.00%, with attractive levels likely to attract demand. It expects August CPI to rise 0.3% m/m (3.3% y/y) and core CPI at…
Scotiabank Economics' Daily Points for September 4, 2026, highlights that markets await US and Canadian jobs reports, with Canada testing recent strong momentum and US nonfarm payrolls expected to be lacklustre. German factory orders show strength, and BoC…