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The global fixed income sell-off continues without clear resolution, with the US dollar strengthening as US yields rose across the curve. The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed roughly 60bps this month, approaching the scale of the March move after the…
Major central banks remain hawkish, with the Fed, ECB and BOJ all tightening policy, yet financial conditions stay unusually loose. AI-related capital expenditure is the dominant growth engine, sustaining activity and market leadership. US underlying…
US equities rallied as AI optimism, easing energy prices and positive US-China trade headlines lifted sentiment. S&P 500 rose 1.5% and Nasdaq advanced 2.3% to a record close; Meta jumped 11% on its Muse AI agent, while AMD passed USD1t market cap. Brent fell…
Oil's roughly $3/barrel decline drove lower sovereign yields across Europe and North America, with major equities up 0.75-1% while the dollar was little changed. Weekend hints of US-China progress precede Thursday's Xi-Trump meeting, though the note flags an…
OCBC's 21 September 2026 snapshot notes the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 5% as markets price two more hikes by year-end despite the Fed's 25bp move. US IG and HY spreads tightened 1bp and 2bp to 75bp and 267bp; Asia HY widened 10bp to 323bp. Traders…
The Fed raised its target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% with all 12 voters backing the move on elevated inflation, and the September dot plot lifted the 2026 median to 4.1% from 3.8%. The BOJ raised its policy target to 1.25% with seven in favour and two…
OCBC's daily outlook flags a hawkish Fed after a unanimous 25bp hike, with the 10-year UST near 5.00% and markets pricing two more hikes by year-end. Focus shifts to the 24 September Trump-Xi talks, where a framework to cut tariffs on about $30bn of goods and…
ABN AMRO has downgraded its EUR/USD forecasts to 1.15 after the Fed hiked its policy rate by 25bp and signalled a more hawkish path than expected. The bank now sees the pair trading broadly sideways until Q2 2027, as higher-for-longer energy prices and…
State Street expects range-bound G10 FX into September, with the US dollar likely to retrace higher over one to two months despite ranking last in its model. Growth outside the US beat depressed expectations, but energy risks persist. The Japanese yen is…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707…
The G7 foreign exchange market is being driven by three converging forces: a yen surge to a seven-month high on expected BOJ tightening, Brent crude above $100 per barrel following US-Iran military escalation, and a synchronized global tightening cycle with…
MUFG's FX Daily Snapshot argues the September 11 US CPI report is pivotal for Fed hike expectations and the dollar. Stronger PPI has lifted implied hikes to 18bp ahead of the FOMC, up from 13bp. An in-line or stronger 0.2% m/m CPI reading would sustain hike…
Scotiabank's September 2026 FX Outlook adopts a broadly bearish USD stance, arguing the DXY is in the early stages of a bearish reversal as rate differentials erode and G10 central banks turn hawkish. The Fed is forecast to hold at 3.75% through 2027, while…
September midterm-year seasonality has lifted volatility, with mixed sentiment and Hindenburg Omen chatter, while sovereign bond routs add unease. Central banks are the key compass: the ECB delivers a 25bp hike, and strong August US jobs fuel expectations of…
ING expects a single Fed rate hike in September 2026, delaying but not cancelling a cyclical dollar decline projected for spring 2027. EUR/USD is forecast to end 2026 around 1.16, with USD/JPY likely trading in a 155-160 range near term. High yielders and…
ING's September 2026 G10 FX outlook sees the dollar's downtrend delayed by an expected 25bp Fed hike on 16 September, prompting a cut in the year-end EUR/USD forecast. EUR/USD is expected to stay subdued until spring when US inflation approaches 2%. USD/JPY…
Scotiabank Economics expects the upcoming week to feature escalation risks in the Canada-US tariff war, with Canada imposing retaliatory tariffs on C$28 billion of US imports, while Canada pivots toward attracting C$1 trillion in investments over five years.…
Intesa Sanpaolo's Forex Flash highlights a high-volatility FX environment driven by divergent central bank policies, with the Japanese yen outperforming as the BOJ is set to hike while the Fed may hold. The dollar is under short-term pressure, the euro is…
ING maintains a bullish medium-term view on the US dollar, citing higher front-end rates and rising energy prices, with near-term upside risks remaining. The report notes intervention fears in USD/JPY after a sharp yen move, hawkish expectations for the ECB…
MUFG's JPY Monthly report for September 2026 highlights the impact of coordinated Japan-US FX intervention (JPY15.4tn since late July) in containing yen weakness, with markets now expecting a BOJ rate hike in September (over 90% priced in) partly due to US…