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MUFG expects the 10-year JGB yield to stay elevated near 3% in the week of October 13, with an intraday range of 2.965%-3.115%. The 2-year-forward 1-month TONA OIS rate, a proxy for terminal-rate expectations, is seen holding around 2.5%, the top of the BoJ's…
Barclays' Green Budget chapter projects CPI inflation to average 3.1% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027 before returning to 2% in 2028. Real GDP growth slows from 1.4% in 2026 to 1.2% in 2027, with unemployment rising to 5.7% and real earnings falling in both years.…
ING expects EUR/USD to stay offered in a 1.10-1.15 range into year-end as French debt concerns echo the 2018 Italian episode rather than a Greek-style default. Modest fiscal consolidation should cap the OAT-Bund spread sell-off. A hawkish September Fed and…
State Street expects the Bank of Canada to hold in October after September employment fell 68k and unemployment rose to 6.5%, and favors a March BoJ hike over December or January. US services ISM stayed solid at 54.9 while consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 near…
ING argues EUR/USD stays pressured in a new 1.10-1.15 range over three to six months, as solid US growth and a hawkish Fed combine with French budget unrest; the French episode is likened to Italy's 2018 election-driven debt stress rather than Greece's 2012…
MUFG reports the dollar index consolidating just above 102 ahead of Wednesday's US September CPI, with the 2-year Treasury yield down about 20bp from its 29th September peak after softer PCE and NFP data. The rate market prices roughly 5bp of Fed hikes this…
MUFG's Japan economic calendar previews the week of October 12, 2026, with September CGPI expected at +7.5% YoY versus consensus +7.6%, after +7.6% in August. M3 money stock is forecast at +1.2% YoY, with broadly-defined liquidity at +4.4%. August machinery…
Scotiabank's Global Week Ahead frames the coming week around US inflation data, the start of Q3 earnings season and central bank communications at the IMF/IIF Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The bank argues the Bank of Canada should fade jobs data and concentrate…
TD Economics' October 9, 2026 weekly review flags the September CPI report (Oct 14) as the key event, with consensus at 3.6% y/y headline and 2.5% y/y core. Oil traded in a $88-93/bbl WTI range as markets weighed Hormuz flows, Middle East tensions and…
The USD sits near year-to-date highs with momentum easing. MUFG expects the Fed to hold rates this month absent a big September CPI upside surprise, noting recent USD strength increasingly reflects overseas weakness, notably euro area energy-shock and French…
MUFG expects Asia FX to trade range-bound in the week ahead, driven by US September CPI, Treasury yields and China activity, inflation and credit data. A softer US inflation print would support high-yielding Asian currencies and help stem equity outflows,…
Scotiabank expects no change in Canadian September employment (0k) and unemployment at 6.5%, versus consensus of +10k. US University of Michigan October sentiment is forecast at 47.0, down from 48.1, with consumers bleak on the outlook yet still spending as…
MUFG notes the euro is stabilising after sliding from 1.1600 to 1.1200 on higher global yields, French fiscal concerns before April/May presidential elections and a terms-of-trade hit from refined energy prices. German GDP forecasts were revised up to 1.3%…
The dollar index holds near year-to-date highs as US rate markets cut expected October Fed hikes to about 5bps from 10bps, with FOMC minutes showing no urgency; gains are driven more by euro-area fiscal and political risk than domestic data, as French-German…
Bonds are under pressure from higher oil prices on escalating Strait of Hormuz attacks, renewed EGB fractures, and a hawkish global central bank tone (RBI hike, possible BCRP move). Treasury and Canadian yields rose in bear steepeners, with long-end yields up…
Nomura forecasts fewer rate hikes than markets price, viewing this as a resumption of hiking cycles with policy rates near or above neutral and inflation largely cost-push. It expects a Fed hike in December then an extended hold, two ECB hikes to a 3.00% depo…
US August trade deficit widened 13.7% to USD105.6bn on a USD2.4bn semiconductor import jump, underscoring the AI build-out. German factory orders fell 10.6% MoM. BoJ's Ueda flagged broadening inflation but tied further hikes to data; Fed's Daly conditioned…
MUFG flags renewed yen underperformance, with USD/JPY at 158.51, sitting on its 200-day moving average. A break would open further gains toward 160 and possible intervention speculation. The Fed has three 25bp hikes priced through mid-2027, and an October…
MUFG attributes the EUR sell-off to higher US yields and mounting euro-area fiscal and political risk, especially France, with French bond stress reviving fragmentation concerns and high foreign ownership of OATs amplifying outflows. EUR/USD has broken below…
Global government bond yields reached about 4%, the highest since 2007, as the Fed, ECB and BoJ tightened with hawkish tones. Brent spiked to $105 then eased to around $90, with a path toward $80 by early 2027 expected. Equities stayed resilient on AI…