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ING expects the RBA to raise rates 25bp, citing tight labour markets, upside Q2 GDP surprise and firm inflation; August CPI seen at 4.1% YoY. China's official manufacturing PMI is forecast at 50.1 and non-manufacturing at 49.2. Japan's services PPI seen at…
Scotiabank's week-ahead preview sees September US nonfarm payrolls at 75k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, fading August's 162k as weather, local-government education and leisure hiring reverse. Canada's July GDP is tracked near +0.1% m/m with Q3 around 2%…
MUFG warns that a tougher external backdrop—higher US Treasury yields and Brent above $100/bbl—leaves Asia FX with a narrow path. The next US payrolls report is the key catalyst; consensus expects 100k jobs and unemployment at 4.1%. MUFG keeps a bias for…
Global bonds extended their selloff, lifting the US 10-year yield to 5.1142% and the 30-year to near 5.4%, with European curves also higher. Strong September flash PMIs and a weak USD70bn 5-year auction reinforced rate-hike expectations. US equities fell (S&P…
Strong US PMIs and rising oil prices deepened the Treasury selloff, lifting 2-year yields 14bp to about 4.9% and the 10-year above 5.0%. Markets price roughly 37bp of additional Fed tightening by December 2026. The DXY rose 0.5%, pressuring most Asian…
Scotiabank's daily notes flag a 'funny season' for manipulated markets before the US midterms, with Trump jawboning oil lower on Iran talks despite unchanged nuclear stockpiles and war risk. Potash and diesel threats appear empty: Belarus has no surplus and a…
Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate at 5.75% and introduced swap and NDF measures to support the rupiah, signalling currency stability remains its priority. Foreign inflows have been positive for four months but remain modest, while a wider current account…
US equities were mixed as financials rotated into tech, with the Nasdaq 100 hitting a record while the Dow fell 0.4%. WTI dropped 5.5% to USD90.52/bbl and Brent fell 1.8% to USD98.53/bbl after Iran signalled the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within seven days…
MUFG expects Bank Indonesia to keep its policy rate on hold, as a steadier IDR masks elevated US 10-year yields and oil near US$100/bbl. The bank flags upside risks to IDR from domestic policy uncertainty and external pressures, while highlighting strong…
The Fed raised its target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% with all 12 voters backing the move on elevated inflation, and the September dot plot lifted the 2026 median to 4.1% from 3.8%. The BOJ raised its policy target to 1.25% with seven in favour and two…
In August 2026, EM debt proved resilient. Hard currency sovereigns returned +0.89% (JP Morgan EMBI GD), led by spread tightening of 10bps to ~235bps, as Treasury yields steadied at 4.75% on the 10-year. Local currency debt returned +0.90% (GBI-EM GD), driven…
Emerging market hard currency bonds outperformed in August 2026, with shorter-maturity bonds leading year-to-date as higher US Treasury term premia, fiscal concerns and hawkish Fed remarks under pressure long duration. The 10-year US Treasury ended at 4.75%,…
Short-dated EM hard currency bonds outperformed longer-dated paper over the first eight months of 2026, as rising US 10-year Treasury yields, higher term premia, fiscal concerns and hawkish Fed remarks tested duration. EM hard currency spreads stayed firm,…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707…
US producer inflation accelerated to 5.4% YoY in August and energy prices jumped, with Brent up over 6% near USD108 on Strait of Hormuz tensions. Markets price a roughly 70% probability of a 25bp Fed hike at the 15-16 September meeting. The ECB raised its…
MUFG expects the September FOMC and BOJ meetings to reinforce a more differentiated Asia FX environment amid Brent above $100/bbl. With the Fed on hold and elevated US yields, a 25bps BOJ hike would tighten global liquidity and risk unwinding yen-funded carry…
Escalating Middle East tensions dominated markets: the US military destroyed five Iranian tankers and Iran retaliated against a US-used base in Jordan. Brent crude rose 3.4% to USD101.21/bbl and WTI gained 3.2% to USD96.05/bbl. US equities fell for a third…
Follow our podcasts by searching ‘ OCBC Research Insights ’ on Telegram! 1 By Global Markets | 9 September 2026 ASEAN-5 & India Assessing the impact of El Niño • We see India, the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia as the higher- exposure…
OCBC's daily treasury outlook highlights key market movements and data releases. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have driven Brent crude to a six-week high, while a potential Iran-Oman accord eased some concerns. The Japanese yen strengthened…
ING expects a single Fed rate hike in September 2026, delaying but not cancelling a cyclical dollar decline projected for spring 2027. EUR/USD is forecast to end 2026 around 1.16, with USD/JPY likely trading in a 155-160 range near term. High yielders and…