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Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in August from 4.5% in July, despite employment rising by 39,000 as participation climbed 0.2pp to 67.1%. Part-time jobs increased by 46,000 while full-time fell by 6,000; hours worked rose 0.7% m/m and…
US flash composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September, with services at 58.7 and manufacturing at 57.0, prompting a sharp sell-off in Treasuries. The 10-year yield closed above 5.11%, a post-GFC high, and the 2-year reached 4.89%. Equities fell, the dollar…
MUFG flags elevated USD/JPY volatility over Japan's autumn holidays after the BOJ hiked to 1.25% with two dissents while the Fed delivered a unanimous 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00%. The pair pushed above 157.50; MUFG's forecast range is 155.00-159.00, with…
Citi argues tokenization of collateral has moved from concept to practical use. Four case studies show real-time margining, US Treasuries mobilized across a 24-hour cycle without leaving the Federal Reserve, tokenized money market funds, and pre-IPO private…
Global bonds extended their selloff, lifting the US 10-year yield to 5.1142% and the 30-year to near 5.4%, with European curves also higher. Strong September flash PMIs and a weak USD70bn 5-year auction reinforced rate-hike expectations. US equities fell (S&P…
Strong US PMIs and rising oil prices deepened the Treasury selloff, lifting 2-year yields 14bp to about 4.9% and the 10-year above 5.0%. Markets price roughly 37bp of additional Fed tightening by December 2026. The DXY rose 0.5%, pressuring most Asian…
MUFG's Middle East Daily reports Brent pulling back toward USD 102/b and WTI near USD 91/b after a 4% surge, as continued Strait of Hormuz transits (up to 17mb/d per US Treasury Secretary Bessent) and a gradually restarting Saudi East-West pipeline ease…
Rising oil prices, strong US PMI data, hawkish Fed Governor Barr comments and weak demand at a five-year Treasury auction pushed the US 10-year yield back above 5.0%, pressuring global equities and lifting the dollar. Brent rose 4.2% to US$103/bbl after…
Invesco argues that alarming headlines over AI bubbles, 5% Treasury yields, debt and oil are mostly attention-seeking rather than informative. Hyperscaler capex remains funded by strong operating cash flows, keeping capex-to-cash ratios below 1.0. AI…
Bitcoin has rallied about 37% and ethereum about 46% from mid-August lows, taking total digital asset market capitalisation back above USD 3 trillion for the first time since January. The move was triggered by the US Treasury's 19 August decision to at least…
SMBC revisits the gap between labor demand (job openings to unemployed workers) and wage growth, noting labor demand bottomed in late 2025 and rebounded in 2026 while wage growth decelerated linearly. Early indications suggest the gap may be closing, with the…
The US Treasury curve bear-flattened as 2s10s narrowed to 19bp from 40bp; the 2-year yield rose 38bp to 4.8% while the 30-year was unchanged at 5.29%, with both real rates and inflation expectations contributing. Intesa Sanpaolo expects gradual declines over…
Commodity markets remain distorted by persistent conflicts, but fundamentals are gaining weight. Physical crude rebalancing is capping rallies, while non-OPEC supply growth and weak demand could build a surplus and pull prices lower. Europe's gas and power…
Scotiabank's daily notes flag a 'funny season' for manipulated markets before the US midterms, with Trump jawboning oil lower on Iran talks despite unchanged nuclear stockpiles and war risk. Potash and diesel threats appear empty: Belarus has no surplus and a…
Fed Chair Warsh has shifted away from neutral-rate framing to focus on financial conditions, saying they are not restrictive. PIMCO expects one or two more 25bp hikes through early next year to prevent further easing, but sees this as a recalibration rather…
Major central banks remain hawkish, with the Fed, ECB and BOJ all tightening policy, yet financial conditions stay unusually loose. AI-related capital expenditure is the dominant growth engine, sustaining activity and market leadership. US underlying…
US equities rotated out of financials into technology as AI competition and a flatter yield curve pressured banks. Oil fell after Iran signalled possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within seven days and Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline.…
The eurozone composite PMI rose to 53.1 in September from 52.0 in August, a three-year high, despite surging oil prices, low water levels and supply chain disruptions. Services drove the gain, jumping from 51.6 to 53.0, with Germany's services PMI up from…
Euro area September flash composite PMI rose to 53.1 from 52.0, its highest since April 2023 and above the 51.8 consensus, led by new orders at 52.8. Manufacturing held at 52.7 and services activity climbed to a 10-month high of 53.0. Yet employment was flat…
The US dollar strengthened modestly even as Brent crude fell around 4%, after US and Iranian officials met at the UN General Assembly and indirect talks were described as very productive. Optimism on a deal to halt the conflict, and reports Iran may reopen…