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Euro area September headline HICP surprised to the upside; MUFG raises its tracking estimate to 3.8%, the highest since September 2023 versus 3.2% in August. German HICP rose to 3.3%, French HICP to 3.4%, and Italian HICP jumped to 4.1%. MUFG maintains the…
Interest rates have risen across developed markets, but credit fundamentals remain resilient: strong earnings, healthy bank capital and liquidity have kept credit anchored. US high-yield revenue rose over 10% and operating profit over 14% year over year,…
State Street argues that although higher US sovereign yields have lifted income, the extra yield further out the curve may not compensate for duration risk. With sticky inflation, resilient growth and fiscal pressures, markets price a higher policy path; the…
Major central banks now reference broader financial conditions when setting policy. Using the Fed's FCI-G, PIMCO estimates conditions were about 50 bps too easy at end-2Q, implying a 70-bp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, a 9% equity decline, or a 4%…
Softer US data pressured yields: Conference Board confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9 and JOLTS openings dropped to 7.08m, while NY Fed's Williams saw no urgency to tighten further, cutting next-meeting hike odds to near 50%. The RBA raised its cash rate 25bp…
Poland's flash CPI accelerated to 4.0% YoY in September from 3.4% in August, mainly due to a 9.2% MoM surge in fuel prices after the standard 23% VAT rate was reinstated. Core inflation eased to 3.0-3.1% YoY, suggesting limited broad price pressures. A…
Amundi's September 2026 cross-asset strategy warns that a low-trust, predatory world makes supply shocks the norm and economic gains uneven. Fragmentation drives fierce competition beyond trade, tech and energy to a relentless public and private hunt for…
US job openings fell to a five-month low of 7.08 million and September consumer confidence slumped to 81.9, its weakest in over 12 years, yet NY Fed President Williams said there is "no urgency" for an imminent follow-up hike. Short-end Treasury yields and…
The dollar remains supported by rising back-end yields, even after soft US consumer confidence (81.9) and JOLTS openings (7,079k) cut October FOMC hike pricing to 12bp. EUR/USD slid to 1.1310-20 before trading near 1.1350; further weakness toward 1.10 is…
Brent steadied near USD 103/b after sliding 2.5% to USD 102.59/b, and WTI closed below USD 90/b, as Saudi Arabia rerouted flows east and lifted East-West line throughput to about half of its 7m b/d capacity following the temporary pipeline shutdown. A final…
Australia's annual CPI inflation rose to 4.0% in August from 3.5% in July, driven by housing (+5.7%) and transport (+5.6%), with automotive fuel up 14.8% in the month. Trimmed mean inflation held at 3.6% for a third month. The data followed the RBA's 25bp…
US data softened: Conference Board consumer confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9, its lowest in over a decade, and August JOLTS openings dropped to 7.08m from 7.34m. NY Fed's Williams saw no urgency to tighten, cutting implied odds of another hike next meeting…
Barclays Research's Q4 2026 Global Outlook argues that despite headwinds such as oil above $100, renewed geopolitical tensions, higher interest rates and rising bond yields, the foundations of global growth remain intact. Strong corporate earnings, an…
UOB projects the US economy stays resilient but bifurcated into 2027, with the Fed on hold through 2026 and cuts resuming only in 2027; a September hike remains a live risk. Fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and debt above US$40tn keep long-end UST yields…
New York Fed President Williams' less hawkish remarks (one more hike 'late this year', no urgency) helped pull US 2-year yields about 5bp lower to 4.88% and trim October hike odds, though Barr and Musalem stayed hawkish. August job openings fell to 7.1mn (vs…
The dollar index reached 101.61, close to June's 101.80 year-to-date high, before New York Fed President Williams pushed back against an October hike, saying there is "no need for urgency." Markets pared October hike pricing to about 12bp from 18bp. Williams…
Advanced economies showed broad September strength. Eurozone composite PMI reached 53.1, its highest since April 2023, with services output prices at 56.1 spreading the energy shock. Germany's composite rose to 53.8 and Ifo hit 89.9; France returned to…
The UK government's pension triple-lock reform and absence of inflationary policies reduce the tail risk of a Labour-driven inflation spiral, a positive for gilts. However, US rates and energy prices remain the dominant drivers, keeping sterling rates…
This Scotiabank Economics calendar lists October 2026 release dates for the US, Canada, eurozone, UK and Japan. Highlights include FOMC and Bank of Canada meetings alongside the ECB, plus US CPI, eurozone CPI and GDP, and Canada GDP, CPI and jobs. The…
UBS CIO argues that elevated policy rates and sticky inflation favor hedge funds, which posted positive cumulative returns in every Fed tightening cycle since 1994 while global bonds fell about 12% in the last cycle. Higher stock dispersion (implied vol ~2.5x…