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Natixis LATAM Macro Insights, based on late-September meetings with two Banxico board members, reports that at its September 24 meeting Banxico kept its policy rate at 6.50% and signaled it would not respond mechanically to Federal Reserve actions amid rising…
The average S&P 500 stock fell three times the index on Wednesday but led Thursday, with the equal-weight fund up 0.47% versus the cap-weighted fund's 0.18%. Implied correlation rose 5.10% to 11.74, above 55 of 60 sessions, as dispersion eased to 35.57. VIX…
This weekly calendar from Intesa Sanpaolo's research department lists macroeconomic releases and central bank events for October 5-9, 2026. Highlights include final September services PMIs for the eurozone, Germany, France, Italy and the UK, US ISM…
In the week starting 2 October 2026, ING expects Poland's NBP to leave its reference rate at 3.75% on 7 October as headline CPI reached 4.0% YoY, with fuel and household energy adding around 2.5pp. Hungary's Wednesday inflation is seen rising strongly, fuel…
Eurostat's flash estimate put euro area headline HICP at 3.8% yoy in September, above Natixis's 3.5% forecast and up from 3.2% in August. Core inflation matched the 2.5% forecast, rising from 2.4%. Energy contributed the most at 1.70pp (18.82% yoy),…
A French government bond sell-off on 1 October 2026 broke the narrative of ever-rising short-term rates, prompting markets to question whether the ECB and Fed are nearing policy errors. EUR/USD broke to new 2026 lows and is biased toward 1.1100/1.10; DXY hit…
US payrolls loom with consensus near 90,000 after 162,000 in August. Oil jumped as the US deploys a third carrier group and 10,000 troops to the Middle East, reviving US-Iran conflict fears. The Germany-France 10-year yield spread widened to a 14-year high of…
Westpac's Cliff Notes flags a 25bp RBA hike to 4.60%, with a follow-up in November viewed as likely if Middle East conflict does not resolve. Underlying CPI rose 0.2% m/m (3.4% y/y). US PCE eased but core stays at 3.0% y/y; Japan's Tankan supports a possible…
Brent crude jumped over 4% to close at USD 102.31/b on news of additional US troop deployments to the Middle East, China's suspension of refined fuel exports, and another tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz. Gold rose about USD 20 to USD 4,177.66/oz as…
The dollar held firm ahead of US nonfarm payrolls, with DXY briefly touching its highest since May 2025 near 102.00 as elevated Treasury yields and resilient data sustained demand. Asia FX weakened broadly despite constructive regional activity. Payrolls are…
The RBI's October 7 decision is finely balanced, with consensus for a 25bp hike to 5.50% but split expectations; MUFG forecasts 50bp of hikes this cycle and sees a risk of 75bp given strong growth, abundant liquidity, firming credit, supportive fiscal policy,…
France's OAT sell-off has blown out the OAT/Bund spread more than expected, leaving EUR vulnerable to further decline. MUFG flags forced selling as the driver, and options flows show one of the most EUR-negative readings in recent periods, implying a…
MUFG's Q3 2026 review shows earnings absorbing a global duration selloff: Brent rose 42% to about $104, gold gained 3.7% to $4,517, and the 10-year UST yield climbed 68bp to 5.28%, with 30-year yields at multi-decade highs. The dollar firmed modestly and…
MUFG forecasts September 2026 US nonfarm payrolls at +90k, slightly above the 85k Bloomberg consensus and the 71k three-month average. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%, though a monthly uptick in job losses could push it to 4.2%. A…
US Treasuries fell for a seventh straight session, with the 10-year yield hitting 5.3% and the 30-year at a 24-year high, driven by Middle East conflict, robust US activity, AI-driven debt issuance and fiscal deficits. UBS CIO deems market pricing of nearly…
France's budget buys time but leaves structural deficits unresolved, keeping OAT-Bund spreads at risk of widening from 130bp toward 150bp. History suggests the euro's muted reaction could reverse, with a 3% risk premium buildup implying EUR/USD at 1.110 and…
SMBC's Joseph Lavorgna projects real GDP growth easing from 2.3% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027, with a sharp Q4 2026 slowdown to 0.7% after 5.1% in Q3. Core PCE is forecast to fall from 3.1% to 2.3% by Q4 2027, allowing the Fed funds upper bound to be cut to…
Equities remain supported by strong nominal growth, looser fiscal policy, the AI boom and higher defence spending, but rising oil prices and bond yields are testing that resilience. The author sees markets in a first phase where higher yields raise the bar…
US 2Q GDP was revised up to 2.2% q/q saar and September ADP payrolls rose by 90,000, while August headline PCE slowed to 3.4% y/y and core PCE held at 3.0%. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.2849% and the DXY was broadly unchanged. Equities closed mixed.…
Natixis's September 2026 US dual mandate snapshot: August payrolls rebounded 162k, broadly based, erasing earlier soft prints, while unemployment held at 4.1%. Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m and headline 0.4% m/m. Because most policymakers already saw labor as near…