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September core CPI rose 0.33% m/m SA and headline CPI 0.65%, both above consensus on core, lifting core y/y to 2.6% and headline to 3.7%. Core goods (+0.3%) and core services ex-housing (+0.4%) show pass-through from commodities and tariffs. PCE is tracking…
September core CPI rose 0.33% m/m, above the 0.2% consensus. The report argues that shelter inflation stabilizing near 3.2% y/y has removed a key source of disinflationary momentum, leaving core CPI trending sideways and inflation likely to stay elevated near…
Natixis assesses LatAm's uneven El Niño exposure. Peru is most exposed (fishing, agriculture), Colombia highly exposed via drought hitting agriculture and hydropower, risking energy and food inflation. Brazil and Chile are ambiguous. Argentina may gain 1.08%…
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 8% in five sessions, with Kospi down over 12% since the start of October, on worries about AI spending durability, Chinese memory competition, higher-for-longer rates and OpenAI revenue confusion. UBS reads the…
September US core CPI rose 0.3% MoM/2.6% YoY, above the 0.2%/2.5% consensus, with shelter, airfares and used vehicles adding pressure and gasoline up 9.1% MoM. Markets now price a 45% chance of an October Fed hike, up from about 20%. ING still expects a…
September US CPI came in hotter than expected and broad-based: headline rose 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y, core 0.34% m/m and 2.6% y/y, with gasoline up 9.1% m/m accounting for over half the monthly all-items increase. Natixis says the print revives debate for the…
The investment team keeps a constructive growth view, citing resilient manufacturing and services activity concentrated in AI and technology capex, while housing and rate-sensitive sectors face headwinds. Labor data show a low-hiring, low-firing market.…
Scotiabank Economics forecasts a Bank of Canada hike of 100bp to a 3.25% terminal rate and two more Fed hikes to a 4.5% fed funds target. US September CPI is called at 0.6% m/m headline and 0.3% core, with the FOMC likely to skip October. Governor Macklem…
The S&P 500 closed at 7,805.45, down 0.02%, as a 3.04% biotech decline and a 1.80% energy gain cancelled out. Chipmakers fell for a sixth session and J&J dropped 5.3% on a talc charge, while Saudi supply attacks lifted oil. VIX1D jumped 38.86% to 10.72 ahead…
OCBC Research argues the 2026 US midterms are a contest of weakness: Democrats are favoured to win both chambers, with the Democratic-sweep scenario carrying a 62% implied probability on Polymarket, but dissatisfaction with Republicans, not enthusiasm for…
ING expects September US CPI at 0.7% headline and 0.3% core MoM, 0.1pp above consensus, which should reinforce the dollar's floor and support some USD re-strengthening. Markets may modestly raise October Fed hike odds, but pricing above 50% (now 20%) likely…
Brent crude trades back above USD 106 after Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco's headquarters and Iran's tanker strikes in Hormuz. Gold holds near USD 4,160 ahead of US September CPI, with Williams signalling one more hike this year and none in 2027. Chipmakers…
MUFG holds that more volatile market conditions remain the key risk. G10 FX volatility has retraced after spiking as the dollar strengthened on surging sovereign bond yields. MUFG judges risks skewed toward a further leg up in yields. On the Middle East,…
AI hardware stocks extended losses, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down a sixth straight session on Chinese DRAM competition and doubts over debt-funded AI capex; CoreWeave bond yield jumped to 15% from 9.625% at issue. The IMF lifted 2026 global…
China's September PPI inflation rose to 5.0% YoY, the highest since 2022 and above forecasts, while CPI edged up to 0.9% YoY. Energy and tech drove gains, but food, rent and autos still dragged. ING judges the worst of deflation may have passed, though…
MAS sprang a surprise by leaving its exchange-rate policy stance unchanged in October, versus consensus for very slight tightening. MUFG reads the forward guidance as implying Singapore's central bank stays on hold, with the appreciating S$NEER band leaning…
Brent December futures trade up 0.4% at USD 106.13/b and WTI near USD 94.51/b as a missile strike on Saudi Aramco HQ and persistent Strait of Hormuz shipping attacks keep a wide geopolitical risk premium. Gold sits near USD 4,161/oz before US September CPI.…
RBC Economics' October 2026 outlook shows policy rates and bond yields across seven economies. The Fed funds midpoint is projected to rise from 3.625% in late 2025 to 4.38% by Q3-26 and stay there through 2027. The Bank of Canada cuts to 2.25% by Q4-25, then…
SMBC forecasts tomorrow's US CPI at 0.5% headline and 0.2% core. Although 31% of small businesses (net) are raising prices, the historical link between that NFIB series and inflation breadth broke down in 2024, likely due to weakening wage growth and high…
Scotiabank argues the BoC should ignore Friday's weak Canadian jobs report and stay focused on inflation, since the 70k September public-sector decline (58k health/education, 46k in Quebec) looks implausible during an election. It urges an external…