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Rising oil prices, strong US PMI data, hawkish Fed Governor Barr comments and weak demand at a five-year Treasury auction pushed the US 10-year yield back above 5.0%, pressuring global equities and lifting the dollar. Brent rose 4.2% to US$103/bbl after…
Invesco argues that alarming headlines over AI bubbles, 5% Treasury yields, debt and oil are mostly attention-seeking rather than informative. Hyperscaler capex remains funded by strong operating cash flows, keeping capex-to-cash ratios below 1.0. AI…
A strong September US composite PMI (58.4) pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield back above 5%, breaching 5.1%, with October rate-hike odds above 70%. Euro rates also rose, with Euribor 10-year above 3.5%, and higher rates can widen eurozone government bond…
Bitcoin has rallied about 37% and ethereum about 46% from mid-August lows, taking total digital asset market capitalisation back above USD 3 trillion for the first time since January. The move was triggered by the US Treasury's 19 August decision to at least…
SMBC revisits the gap between labor demand (job openings to unemployed workers) and wage growth, noting labor demand bottomed in late 2025 and rebounded in 2026 while wage growth decelerated linearly. Early indications suggest the gap may be closing, with the…
The US Treasury curve bear-flattened as 2s10s narrowed to 19bp from 40bp; the 2-year yield rose 38bp to 4.8% while the 30-year was unchanged at 5.29%, with both real rates and inflation expectations contributing. Intesa Sanpaolo expects gradual declines over…
Commodity markets remain distorted by persistent conflicts, but fundamentals are gaining weight. Physical crude rebalancing is capping rallies, while non-OPEC supply growth and weak demand could build a surplus and pull prices lower. Europe's gas and power…
State Street estimates the long-term UK nominal neutral rate at 2.5%-3.00%, arguing the post-pandemic rise reflected the inflation shock rather than a durable improvement in the real economy. Weak productivity, aging demographics and subdued investment demand…
Scotiabank's daily notes flag a 'funny season' for manipulated markets before the US midterms, with Trump jawboning oil lower on Iran talks despite unchanged nuclear stockpiles and war risk. Potash and diesel threats appear empty: Belarus has no surplus and a…
Fed Chair Warsh has shifted away from neutral-rate framing to focus on financial conditions, saying they are not restrictive. PIMCO expects one or two more 25bp hikes through early next year to prevent further easing, but sees this as a recalibration rather…
Major central banks remain hawkish, with the Fed, ECB and BOJ all tightening policy, yet financial conditions stay unusually loose. AI-related capital expenditure is the dominant growth engine, sustaining activity and market leadership. US underlying…
US equities rotated out of financials into technology as AI competition and a flatter yield curve pressured banks. Oil fell after Iran signalled possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within seven days and Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline.…
The eurozone composite PMI rose to 53.1 in September from 52.0 in August, a three-year high, despite surging oil prices, low water levels and supply chain disruptions. Services drove the gain, jumping from 51.6 to 53.0, with Germany's services PMI up from…
Euro area September flash composite PMI rose to 53.1 from 52.0, its highest since April 2023 and above the 51.8 consensus, led by new orders at 52.8. Manufacturing held at 52.7 and services activity climbed to a 10-month high of 53.0. Yet employment was flat…
Brent dropped below $99/bbl and WTI traded near $89/bbl, extending a six-session losing streak with cumulative losses above 9.5%. The sell-off followed the restart of Saudi Arabia's 7m b/d East-West pipeline, signs of US-Iran diplomatic progress, and an…
The US dollar strengthened modestly even as Brent crude fell around 4%, after US and Iranian officials met at the UN General Assembly and indirect talks were described as very productive. Optimism on a deal to halt the conflict, and reports Iran may reopen…
Australian state budgets are set to deteriorate by $13.5bn over four years versus published 2026 budgets, mainly in FY2027, as a 60bps average rise in sovereign bond yields since budget publication adds about $3.5bn to interest costs and a sharper housing…
The dollar stays firm despite lower oil and risk-friendly sentiment, as hawkish Fed comments dominate. Barkin said one hike may not tame inflation; jobless claims are below 200k and ADP hiring improved. Brent slipped under $100/bbl on Iranian talks and the…
Citi argues that interoperability, not platform capability, is the binding constraint on institutional digital finance. Banks have invested over $100B in blockchain since 2020, producing parallel networks, fragmented liquidity and assets that do not move with…
Policymakers appear to be trying to contain 30-year Treasury volatility through buybacks, support for the yen, a more credible hawkish Fed and active curve management. But none of this removes the fiscal deficit, heavy Treasury issuance or AI-driven corporate…