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OCBC's 28 Sep 2026 snapshot flags a data-heavy week capped by Friday's US nonfarm payrolls (consensus ~100k, unemployment 4.2%) and core PCE (0.3% m/m). The Trump-Xi meeting extended the trade truce to 10 January with reciprocal tariff cuts on ~USD30bn of…
Gold has fallen 3.2% to around USD 4,150 after breaking technical support near USD 4,230, pressured by an 18-year high in US 10-year real yields near 2.85%, a stronger dollar, and technical selling possibly amplified by Chinese pre-holiday profit-taking.…
With Brent near $100, sterling money markets price more than four Bank of England hikes, taking SONIA to about 4.75%. ING's economist disagrees: the BoE is expected to hold and eventually cut to 3.25% by mid-2027 as inflation converges to target by mid-2027…
The ECB hike discount is stretched, but hard to lean against given high uncertainty. Liquidity conditions will continue to tighten. Repo markets should absorb the adjustment, but a higher reserve requirement, year-end pressures or ECB borrowing stigma could…
The Fed hiked 25bp in September under Chair Kevin Warsh, and markets have hardened a further rate-hike discount. ING argues this is overdone: the 10yr SOFR implies a 5% funds rate for a decade, while ING expects cuts in 2027-2028 back toward 3.5%. With…
State Street's Q3 2026 white paper argues gold is a portfolio diversifier with historical staying power. In 14 S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns greater than 15%, gold averaged +5.89% versus -23.70% for the index, with positive returns in eleven. The paper…
In the week to 22 September 2026, surging US Treasury yields and renewed Fed tightening expectations lifted the Dollar Index about 1% and prompted speculators to rebuild the aggregate dollar long from $5.9bn to $18.4bn. Yen longs were cut by 48k contracts…
President Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has revived supply-disruption fears, pushing Brent above USD 107 while global bond yields hit fresh cycle highs. Gold broke below USD 4,230 support and silver tumbled over 4% as…
Emerging markets are no longer a commodity-cycle proxy: IT is now the largest sector in the MSCI EM Index, credit quality has improved, reserves exceed $7tn and a weaker dollar plus light positioning support returns. Valuations still reflect old assumptions,…
OCBC revises its RBA call to a 25bp hike at the September 2026 meeting, lifting the cash rate to 4.60% from 4.35%, citing resilient labour demand (employment +39,500; hours worked +13.7mn) and high participation (67.1%). A single 25bp cut is now expected in…
MUFG argues the macro backdrop remains supportive of a stronger US dollar, with the dollar index near year-to-date highs and next resistance at the 24 June high of 101.80. Oil near USD110/bbl on stalled US-Iran talks keeps upward pressure on US yields;…
The dollar's recent rally faces downside risks as markets await US September jobs data, with October FOMC hike pricing at 16bp. ING expects a consensus 90k payrolls print with possible August revisions lower, keeping hike odds above 50% but unlikely to…
MUFG reports USD/JPY opened the week at 156.98, rose to 159.03 on Fed hike expectations, then pulled back below 158.50 after Finance Minister Katayama's warning. A clear break of the 200-day moving average near 158.50 would put 160 back in reach. A December…
Natixis argues the November 2026 US-China summit left China with the upper hand, with the trade truce and China's rare-earth export controls deferred only to Jan. 10 instead of a year. As Xi landed, the 10-year Treasury yield rose about 16bp above 5.1%, the…
Asia FX faces a tougher external backdrop as elevated Brent crude and high global yields reinforce each other; the spot-over-front-month Brent premium has risen to about US$18/bbl from a negative spread in early September, and the US 10-year yield is above…
ING examines how US Treasury Secretary Bessent could lower the 10yr yield. If the Treasury cancels 10yr, 20yr and 30yr auctions, adds buybacks, and the 10yr SOFR rate falls 50bp to 4.25%, the 10yr Treasury yield could drop 100bp from 5.25% to 4.25%, touching…
Oil advanced as prospects for a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded, with Brent around USD 106/b and WTI above USD 93/b after Trump rejected Iran's conditions. Gold fell as much as 1.8% to below USD 4,206/oz on elevated energy-driven inflation and…
MUFG reviews September central bank week: the ECB and Fed hiked 25bp, the BoE held, and the BoJ hiked 25bp in a 7-2 vote. From 9 to 25 September, US and European curves flattened while Japan's steepened slightly. A split BoJ vote and reflation-linked…
Global rates rose and pulled New Zealand along. Strong US data and resurgent oil pushed US yields higher, lifting NZ rates and cutting the trade-weighted index 4% below the RBNZ's September MPS assumption. Markets price about a 75% chance of an OCR hike on 28…
Westpac expects the RBA to hike the cash rate 25bp to 4.60% at its September meeting, with a split vote likely amid disagreement over trend supply capacity. August CPI is forecast at 0.4%mth with upside risk, trimmed mean at 0.2%mth. Employment rose 39.5k but…