Reports are admitted only from public, source-verifiable pages. How Tlines structures a report, grouped by asset, publishing institution or topic below.
RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said monetary policy transmission remains intact despite mortgage offset buffers, with the exchange rate, wealth, saving and borrowing-cost channels all functioning. The harder question is whether conditions are…
MUFG keeps a cautious IDR bias, expecting USD/IDR at 18,350 in Q4 2026 and 18,500 in Q1 2027. Drivers include elevated US yields, an oil-driven trade balance squeeze, a harder Bank Indonesia trade-off and MSCI's consultation on reclassifying Indonesia from…
Westpac lowered its New Zealand 2027 GDP growth forecast by 0.3ppts to 2.7%yr, citing higher assumed energy prices and a steeper near-term path for long-term interest rates that weigh on consumption and residential investment. A weaker NZ dollar…
Westpac expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates 25bp in November, citing cost-plus pricing behaviour, pass-through of non-labour costs and above-average award wage increases that keep demand ahead of supply. Australian unemployment held at 4.7%…
Scotiabank's weekly preview argues Canadian core inflation remains at or above the BoC's 2% target, with traditional core running near 3% m/m SAAR for four straight months and another firm print expected, supporting the view that policy is too loose. BoC…
Mexico dominates next week's Latam calendar with retail sales, bi-weekly October CPI, unemployment and August IGAE activity data. Headline bi-weekly inflation is forecast at 0.5% m/m and 3.7% y/y, with core at 0.2% m/m and 3.7% y/y. Activity is expected to…
US bonds and equities stayed volatile as TSMC's cautious AI outlook and a 1.3% September PPI rise, the largest monthly gain in four and a half years, followed a hot CPI print. Yet the 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 5.09%, near a three-week low, as risk…
SMBC's October 2026 US macro forecast projects real GDP growth slowing from 4.0% annualized in 2026 Q3 to 2.3% by 2027 Q4, with Q4/Q4 growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. Core PCE inflation is expected to ease from 3.2% in 2026 Q4 to 2.5% by 2027 Q4. The…
US September CPI accelerated to 3.7% y/y, with core at 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m, as price pressures broadened across goods, shelter and services. PPI jumped 1.3% m/m (6.3% y/y). Retail sales rose 0.8%, but ex-auto/gas gained just 0.2%. TD expects the Fed to skip…
US inflation surprised higher, driven by tariffs and broad price pressures, but ING expects tariff refunds, cooling rents and 3% wage growth to bring inflation near 2% by Q2 next year. The AI investment boom, about a third of GDP growth this year, keeps…
US industrial production rose 0.7% MoM and 2.2% YoY in September 2026, beating the 0.4% consensus, with August revised up 0.1ppt. Manufacturing gained 0.3% MoM despite a 3% drop in auto volumes; utilities jumped 3.5% on data-centre demand and mining edged up…
Non-energy import prices rose 6.0% y/y in September, the fastest since 2022, with capital goods up 8.4% y/y, the fastest since December 1987. SMBC attributes this to the AI buildout plus an effective tariff rate that has climbed to 9% from a post-substitution…
US September inflation drifted higher, yet Natixis argues a Fed pause is more likely than not, giving room to complete scaling into 2yr longs. Treasuries rallied despite bad inflation data and a silent Warsh, suggesting the market is forming a floor. The bank…
SMBC argues the post-CPI Treasury rally suggests the economy's sensitivity to rate levels has increased, with stress among weaker AI and high-yield borrowers tightening financial conditions. But continued equity gains keep economy-wide tightening modest, so…
Saxo's commodity weekly says the Bloomberg Commodity Index is set for a marginal 0.1% weekly decline, staying up about 35% year-to-date, with energy strength offsetting losses in metals and grains. Gold steadies as Treasury yields and the dollar reverse…
Three-month implied correlation fell 5.94% to 12.04, the largest move on the board, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 1.36% versus the headline index's 0.33%. Volatility moved rather than vanished: the bond volatility measure rose 3.45% to 102.50.…
Fed Chair Warsh refused to prejudge upcoming meetings or offer forward guidance, while repeating upbeat US outlook views. BoC Governor Macklem said the Bank has not yet raised rates but is asking whether energy-driven inflation will force a hike. US Commerce…
Next week brings rate decisions in Hungary, Turkey and Kazakhstan plus Polish industrial output, labour market and retail sales data. ING expects the National Bank of Hungary to hold, a 100bp Turkish cut to 36%, and a 25bp cut to 16.00% in Kazakhstan on 23…
Eurostat's final September estimate put euro area headline HICP at 3.8% y/y and 0.6% m/m, above Natixis' 3.5% call but matching the flash. Energy surged 18.9% y/y and 4.0% m/m, contributing 1.7pp and overtaking services as the largest driver. Core held at…
Schwab's On Investing podcast weighs a hotter-than-expected core CPI against the AI infrastructure boom. Higher Treasury yields pressure rate-sensitive firms, making quality a focal point into earnings. TCW's Bryan Whalen notes hyperscalers increasingly fund…