Cee cca week ahead 16 october

Key arguments

• The NBH is expected to hold as geopolitically driven market volatility keeps risk sentiment too fragile for a cut; November easing is possible only if the fiscal situation materially lowers the country risk premium.
• Turkish inflation data have raised the likelihood of a cut, and fund volatility adds downside risks to activity, though the macro impact is seen as manageable.
• Poland's manufacturing stays fragile and uneven, with machinery and transport equipment relatively firm while textiles, furniture and autos struggle; PPI inflation should accelerate on refining costs.
• Kazakhstan's base case is a 25bp cut, but a hold is plausible because the CPI slowdown was overwhelmingly food-driven and rising global core rates argue for high real rates.

Corresponding source evidence

1. At the same time, we expect PPI inflation to accelerate further, driven mainly by higher crude oil refining costs.
2. Nevertheless, household consumption growth this year is projected to be slower than in 2025. · 2025
3. Regarding fiscal policy, although the central bank is aware of the 2027 budget, as the NBH governor sits on the Fiscal Council that reviews and approves it, no public information will be available on this. · 2027