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ING now expects the Bank of England to hike rates in November and February, driven by elevated natural gas prices and a brief CPI peak above 4% in early 2027. The hikes are framed as insurance, with cuts possible by late 2027 if second-round effects remain…
ING expects eurozone growth to moderate after a solid third quarter, with 2026 average growth of 1.0% and 1.2% in 2027 assuming energy prices normalise. HICP inflation rose to 3.8% in September, with underlying at 2.5%, and is likely to end 2026 above 4%…
Sovereign bonds are rallying while equities waver, with Treasury yields down 6–10bps in a bull flattener and the US 10-year 22bps below its peak ten days ago. The article questions whether this is a durable rotation into bonds or a brief hiccup. It previews…
Natixis analysts warn that French banks, despite strong credit fundamentals, remain structurally exposed to sovereign risk ahead of the 2027 presidential election. They cut France's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and see the public deficit at -5.4% of GDP…
The report expects the Fed to hold in October and hike 25bp in December, with no further tightening in 2027 despite market pricing of 50bp. The ECB is seen hiking in December, not October, though surging German yields already deliver tightening equivalent to…
September US headline CPI rose 0.6% MoM, 3.7% YoY, on a 9.1% gasoline surge; core rose 0.3% MoM, 2.6% YoY. October hike pricing rose above 50% before easing to 35%, while the Fed's Collins backed a further hike. The S&P 500 fell 1.11%, Nasdaq 1.88%; the 2Y…
Westpac's October 2026 Outlook says markets have had little respite: bond yields have jumped, led by US 10-year benchmarks up 27bps above 5% and French bonds up 40bps, driven by real yields after the Fed's September hike. Westpac expects one more Fed hike,…
The dollar gave back gains made after a stronger-than-expected September US CPI, with the index falling from a year-to-date high of 102.95 toward 102.00. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 18bps to 4.95% post-CPI before retreating to near 4.70%. MUFG…
Natixis assesses LatAm's uneven El Niño exposure. Peru is most exposed (fishing, agriculture), Colombia highly exposed via drought hitting agriculture and hydropower, risking energy and food inflation. Brazil and Chile are ambiguous. Argentina may gain 1.08%…
September US CPI came in hotter than expected and broad-based: headline rose 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y, core 0.34% m/m and 2.6% y/y, with gasoline up 9.1% m/m accounting for over half the monthly all-items increase. Natixis says the print revives debate for the…
Scotiabank Economics forecasts a Bank of Canada hike of 100bp to a 3.25% terminal rate and two more Fed hikes to a 4.5% fed funds target. US September CPI is called at 0.6% m/m headline and 0.3% core, with the FOMC likely to skip October. Governor Macklem…
Brent crude trades back above USD 106 after Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco's headquarters and Iran's tanker strikes in Hormuz. Gold holds near USD 4,160 ahead of US September CPI, with Williams signalling one more hike this year and none in 2027. Chipmakers…
MUFG holds that more volatile market conditions remain the key risk. G10 FX volatility has retraced after spiking as the dollar strengthened on surging sovereign bond yields. MUFG judges risks skewed toward a further leg up in yields. On the Middle East,…
AI hardware stocks extended losses, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down a sixth straight session on Chinese DRAM competition and doubts over debt-funded AI capex; CoreWeave bond yield jumped to 15% from 9.625% at issue. The IMF lifted 2026 global…
MAS sprang a surprise by leaving its exchange-rate policy stance unchanged in October, versus consensus for very slight tightening. MUFG reads the forward guidance as implying Singapore's central bank stays on hold, with the appreciating S$NEER band leaning…
RBC Economics' October 2026 outlook shows policy rates and bond yields across seven economies. The Fed funds midpoint is projected to rise from 3.625% in late 2025 to 4.38% by Q3-26 and stay there through 2027. The Bank of Canada cuts to 2.25% by Q4-25, then…
Scotiabank argues the BoC should ignore Friday's weak Canadian jobs report and stay focused on inflation, since the 70k September public-sector decline (58k health/education, 46k in Quebec) looks implausible during an election. It urges an external…
Between 2015 and 2019, euro area goods exports from the major economies moved largely in tandem; since 2023, trajectories have diverged, with Southern European resilience tied to successive rotations across capital goods, chemicals, energy, manufactured and…
State Street upgraded its US dollar view from negative to neutral after a September rally driven by higher yields, elevated oil and resilient US growth; it flags the dollar as most likely to break higher out of an 18-month range and the euro as most likely to…
The yen has firmed modestly, with USD/JPY nearing 158.00 after trading just below its 200-day moving average near 158.50 this month. Intervention risk and expected BoJ tightening are capping the pair's upside even as broad USD strength persists. MUFG expects…