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State Street upgraded its US dollar view from negative to neutral after a September rally driven by higher yields, elevated oil and resilient US growth; it flags the dollar as most likely to break higher out of an 18-month range and the euro as most likely to…
The yen has firmed modestly, with USD/JPY nearing 158.00 after trading just below its 200-day moving average near 158.50 this month. Intervention risk and expected BoJ tightening are capping the pair's upside even as broad USD strength persists. MUFG expects…
ING expects EUR/USD to stay offered in a 1.10-1.15 range into year-end as French debt concerns echo the 2018 Italian episode rather than a Greek-style default. Modest fiscal consolidation should cap the OAT-Bund spread sell-off. A hawkish September Fed and…
ING argues EUR/USD stays pressured in a new 1.10-1.15 range over three to six months, as solid US growth and a hawkish Fed combine with French budget unrest; the French episode is likened to Italy's 2018 election-driven debt stress rather than Greece's 2012…
MUFG reports the dollar index consolidating just above 102 ahead of Wednesday's US September CPI, with the 2-year Treasury yield down about 20bp from its 29th September peak after softer PCE and NFP data. The rate market prices roughly 5bp of Fed hikes this…
Westpac NZ argues higher fuel costs, a weaker NZD and a soft housing market have shifted the near-term outlook. Annual CPI is expected to dip to 3.7% in September before rising to a three-year high of 4.2% by December, half a point above Westpac's prior…
Westpac's Australia and NZ Weekly argues that statistical revisions — to US PCE inflation, UK productivity and Canadian population — show measurement is imperfect and warrant humility in policy pronouncements. Australian data showed consumer sentiment down…
Scotiabank's Global Week Ahead frames the coming week around US inflation data, the start of Q3 earnings season and central bank communications at the IMF/IIF Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The bank argues the Bank of Canada should fade jobs data and concentrate…
MUFG expects Asia FX to trade range-bound in the week ahead, driven by US September CPI, Treasury yields and China activity, inflation and credit data. A softer US inflation print would support high-yielding Asian currencies and help stem equity outflows,…
Scotiabank expects no change in Canadian September employment (0k) and unemployment at 6.5%, versus consensus of +10k. US University of Michigan October sentiment is forecast at 47.0, down from 48.1, with consumers bleak on the outlook yet still spending as…
MUFG notes the euro is stabilising after sliding from 1.1600 to 1.1200 on higher global yields, French fiscal concerns before April/May presidential elections and a terms-of-trade hit from refined energy prices. German GDP forecasts were revised up to 1.3%…
Australia's October Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Index fell 4.7% to 80.4, back to deeply pessimistic levels; sentiment dropped 20% between responses before and after the RBA's September rate hike. US September payrolls rose just 29k versus 89k expected, with…
Westpac estimates Australia's November monthly CPI at 0.4%mth, holding the annual pace at 3.8%yr. October CPI was flat, trimming the December-quarter trimmed mean estimate to 0.8%qtr/3.2%yr. Electricity (+16%), gas (+3.2%) and auto fuel (+2.3%) lift November,…
Westpac's review of its 2026 forecasts shows a higher near-term inflation picture but also growth risks, conditions it says favour the RBNZ moving cautiously on the OCR in the lead-up to Christmas. No OCR level, CPI figure or growth number is given in the…
The dollar index holds near year-to-date highs as US rate markets cut expected October Fed hikes to about 5bps from 10bps, with FOMC minutes showing no urgency; gains are driven more by euro-area fiscal and political risk than domestic data, as French-German…
For two decades, low Asian labour costs suppressed global goods inflation, but ageing populations and rising incomes are eroding that disinflationary impulse. Manufacturing is shifting to capital, technology and power, with AI supply chains concentrated in…
Westpac New Zealand Economics has revised its 2026/27 farmgate milk price forecast up by 25c to $9.75/kg, citing stronger than expected milk powder prices and shifting global demand from fats to proteins. A confirmed super-sized El Niño presents upside risk…
Bonds are under pressure from higher oil prices on escalating Strait of Hormuz attacks, renewed EGB fractures, and a hawkish global central bank tone (RBI hike, possible BCRP move). Treasury and Canadian yields rose in bear steepeners, with long-end yields up…
MUFG flags renewed yen underperformance, with USD/JPY at 158.51, sitting on its 200-day moving average. A break would open further gains toward 160 and possible intervention speculation. The Fed has three 25bp hikes priced through mid-2027, and an October…
MUFG attributes the EUR sell-off to higher US yields and mounting euro-area fiscal and political risk, especially France, with French bond stress reviving fragmentation concerns and high foreign ownership of OATs amplifying outflows. EUR/USD has broken below…