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Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Westpac estimates Australia's November monthly CPI at 0.4%mth, holding the annual pace at 3.8%yr. October CPI was flat, trimming the December-quarter trimmed mean estimate to 0.8%qtr/3.2%yr. Electricity (+16%), gas (+3.2%) and auto fuel (+2.3%) lift November, partly offset by holiday travel (-2.6%) and clothing (-2.9%). Westpac expects core inflation to moderate through 2026 but stay in the 2-3% band only later that year, and continues to weight quarterly core measures more heavily given short monthly series histories.
- Institution
- Westpac / Westpac IQ
- Published
- 10/08/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation
- Time horizon
- December 2025
Key arguments
- November monthly CPI estimated at 0.4%mth, keeping the annual pace at 3.8%yr; the seasonally adjusted estimate is 0.5%mth.
- December-quarter CPI held at 0.6%qtr; trimmed mean revised up to 0.8%qtr/3.2%yr from 0.7%qtr/3.1%yr.
- October's inflation bump came largely from administered prices and noise rather than domestic demand or labour market pressures; the RBA is more worried about upside inflation risks than first thought.
- Westpac expects inflation to ease through 2026 on lagged restrictive policy and fading government support, but headline returns to the 2-3% band only later in 2026.
Key numbers
- November monthly CPI estimate
- 0.4%mth; 3.8%yr
- December-quarter CPI estimate
- 0.6%qtr; 3.6%yr
- December-quarter trimmed mean
- 0.8%qtr; 3.2%yr
- November electricity
- +16.0%mth
- October CPI
- 0.0%mth; 3.8%yr
Main risks
- The complete monthly CPI has only a short history, so seasonal adjustment may be arbitrary for some series, risking significant revisions to adjusted series including the trimmed mean and weighted median.
- Upward inflation momentum may persist longer than expected, keeping inflation above target given the RBA's heightened concern about upside risks.
- Forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or known and unknown risks; actual results may differ substantially.
Corresponding source evidence
1WESTPAC ECONOMICS NOVEMBER CPI PREVIEW AND ANALYSIS Complete Montly CPI will take some time to understand 19 December 2025 Key points • The October monthly CPI was flat in the month, broadly as we expected but stronger than market expectations.
· December 2025• Our November monthly CPI estimate is 0.4% for the month, leaving the annual pace unchanged at 3.8%yr.
• For now, we will continue to place greater emphasis on the quarterly measures of core inflation.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Westpac / Westpac IQ on 10/08/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction